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Les exportations de marchandises favorisent-elles celles de services ? Une étude à partir du modèle de gravité

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  • Damien Broussolle

    ()
    (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg)

Abstract

Based on a gravity analysis, the paper shows that there is a significant relationship between goods and services exports, at least as they are measured in the current account of the BOP. Truly enough several recent works have already, but incidentally, shed some light on this issue. The paper is structured as follows. First it recalls what the gravity model is and how it was previously applied to services exports. The second section deals with the panel data. The bilateral trade panel includes 30 OECD countries; it covers the years 2004 to 2008. The section explains the problems that were encountered when building the panel and how they were overcome. The third section describes the available services headings of the EBOPS-OECD data that might, for theoretical reasons, be related to commodities exchange. It suggests a specific services indicator that the paper tests afterwards. The fourth section proposes three econometric analyses. The initial one validates the basic model by comparing its results for commodities and services exports. The following one focuses on the relation between commodities exports and the two services exports indicators. The last one studies the case of transport and travel services, those two headings are expected to generate opposite results when tested with the model. The analysis confirms that several services exports are truly and significantly linked with commodities exports. Nevertheless it also demonstrates, that available data are too scarce and somewhat not enough detailed to go beyond rather broad views. Consequently, on the one hand spurious correlation may arise (Travel), while on the other hand true potential ones may remain concealed (Merchanting).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center with number 2013-12.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:lar:wpaper:2013-12

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Keywords: services trade; goods & services exports; gravity analysis;

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References

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  1. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "The Effects of the Services Directive on Intra-eu Trade and fdi," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 747-769.
  2. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  3. Carolina Lennon, 2008. "Trade in services and trade in goods: differences and complementarities," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586223, HAL.
  4. Daniel Mirza & Emmanuel Milet & Guillaume Gaulier, 2010. "Les firmes françaises dans le commerce international de services," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 435(1), pages 125-147.
  5. Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2011. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database," Working Papers 2011-25, CEPII research center.
  6. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(2), pages 307-329, July.
  7. Cyrille Schwellnus, 2007. "The Effect of Domestic Regulation on Services Trade Revisited," Working Papers 2007-08, CEPII research center.
  8. Isabelle Rabaud & Thierry Montalieu, 2012. "Une analyse critique des mesures de restriction aux échanges de services," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(4), pages 779-793.
  9. Nico van Leeuwen & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Bilateral Services Trade Data and the GTAP database," CPB Memorandum 160, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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