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Fake News, Voter Overconfidence, and the Quality of Democratic Choice

Author

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  • Melis Kartal

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Jean-Robert Tyran

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper studies, theoretically and experimentally, the effects of overconfidence and fake news on information aggregation and the quality of democratic choice in a common interest setting. We theoretically show that overconfidence exacerbates the adverse effects of widespread misinformation (i.e., fake news). We study extensions that allow for partisan biases, targeted misinformation intended to move public opinion in a specific direction, and correlated news signals (due to for example media ownership concentration). In our experiment, voters are exposed to correct news or misinformation. The extent to which a subject is likely to observe correct news depends on their cognitive ability. Absent overconfidence, more cognitively able subjects are predicted to vote while less able subjects are predicted to abstain, and information is predicted to aggregate well. We provide evidence that overconfidence induces misinformed subjects to vote excessively, thereby severly undermining information aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Melis Kartal & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2020. "Fake News, Voter Overconfidence, and the Quality of Democratic Choice," Discussion Papers 20-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:2003
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralph-Christopher Bayer & Marco Faravelli & Carlos Pimienta, 2023. "The Wisdom of the Crowd: Uninformed Voting and the Efficiency of Democracy," Discussion Papers 2023-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Agneman, Gustav, 2022. "How economic expectations shape preferences for national independence: Evidence from Greenland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Thomas Markussen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2023. "Is There a Dividend of Democracy? Experimental Evidence from Cooperation Games," CESifo Working Paper Series 10616, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    behavioral political economy; voting; misinformation; Dunning-Kruger effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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