The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates
AbstractStandard models of intertemporal allocation predict that the time path of expenditures should beindependent of the time path of income. Recently two papers, Parker (1999) and Souleles (1999)have suggested that U.S. households have a high marginal propensity to spend within yearanticipated income changes. We use an expenditure survey panel from Spain to re-examine thisissue. We exploit two important features of the Spanish data. First, we have quarterly panel datathat follows households for more than four quarters. Second, we use the fact that workers areexogenously sorted into one of two payment schemes: some receive the same amount eachmonth of the year and others receive an extra payment in June and December. The extra paymentis large and predictable. We examine the detailed pattern of expenditures over the year to seewhether they differ between the two groups. We fail to find even weak differences. Wecomplement this with a conventional Euler equation analysis of excess sensitivity. Our predictingequation for (quarterly) earnings growth is much better than usual and is likely to give a powerfultest of the hypothesis that predictable changes in income do not lead to changes in expenditurepatterns. The results of this analysis confirm the graphical analysis: we find no evidence ofexcess sensitivity. We conclude that households in normal times do smooth consumption overthe year. We suggest a reconciliation of our results with those of Parker and Souleles.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 91 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Other versions of this item:
- M. Dolores Collado & Martín Browning, 1999. "-The Response Of Expenditures To Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates," Working Papers. Serie AD 1999-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shapiro, Matthew D & Slemrod, Joel, 1995.
"Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 274-83, March.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 1993. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding," NBER Working Papers 4344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H, 1989.
"The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 319-37, June.
- John H. Cochrane, 1988. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wilcox, David W, 1989.
"Social Security Benefits, Consumption Expenditure, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 288-304, April.
- David W. Wilcox, 1987. "Social security benefits, consumption expenditure, and the life cycle hypothesis," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996.
"Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
- Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Discussion Papers 96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1995. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Department of Economics Working Papers 1995-02, McMaster University.
- Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-18, May.
- Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
- Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September.
- Parker, J.A., 1997. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Payroll Tax Rates," Working papers 9724, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.