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Selection Bias in Educational Transition Models: Theory and Empirical Evidence

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Author Info
Anders Holm (Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen)
Mads Meier Jæger (Danish National Centre for Social Research, Copenhagen)

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Abstract

Most studies which use Mare’s (1980, 1981) seminal model of educational transitions find that the effect of family background variables decreases across educational transitions. Cameron and Heckman (1998, 2001) have argued that this “waning coefficients” phenomenon might be driven by selection on unobserved variables. This paper, first, analyzes theoretically how selection on unobserved variables leads to waning coefficients and, second, illustrates empirically how selection affects estimates of the effect of family background variables on educational transitions. Our empirical analysis which uses data from the United States, United Kingdom, Denmark, and the Netherlands shows that the effect of family background variables on educational transitions is largely constant across transitions when we control for selection on unobserved variables. We also discuss the inherent difficulties in estimating educational transition models which deal effectively with selection on unobserved variables.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics in its series CAM Working Papers with number 2009-05.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuieca:2009_05

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  1. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 2001. "The Dynamics of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 455-499, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 1998. "Censoring of outcomes and regressors due to survey nonresponse: Identification and estimation using weights and imputations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 37-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Monotone Treatment Response," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1311-1334, November.
  5. Angrist, Joshua D, 2001. "Estimations of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 2-16, January.
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  6. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Family background, cohort and education: A French-German comparison based on a multivariate ordered probit model of educational attainment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 231-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Colding, Bjorg, 2006. "A dynamic analysis of educational progression of children of immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 479-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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