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A New Approach to Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Defining Subjective Probabilities

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Edi Karni

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Abstract

This paper presents axiomatic models of decision making under uncertainty that avoid the use of a state space. The models are (a) general subjective expected utility theory with action-dependent subjective probabilities and effect-dependent utilities (the cases of effect-independent preferences and effect-independent valuations are obtained as special instances) and (b) a nonexpected utility theory involving well-defined families of action-dependent subjective probabilities on effects and utility representation that is not necessarily linear in these probabilities (a probabilistic sophistication version of this model, with action-dependent subjective probabilities is obtained as a special case)

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 519.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:519

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  1. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Grant, Simon, 1995. "Subjective Probability without Monotonicity: Or How Machina's Mom May Also Be Probabilistically Sophisticated," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 159-89, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Edi Karni, 2005. "Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World," Economics Working Paper Archive 523, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Karni, Edi, 1993. "A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-98, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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