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Almost-objective uncertainty

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Mark Machina ()

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Abstract

Every subjective state space with Euclidean structure contains almost-objective events which arbitrarily closely approximate the properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether or not they are expected utility, state-independent, or probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods, statistical independence from other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective bets, and linearity of state-independent and state-dependent expected utility in almost-objective likelihoods and mixtures. Most physical randomization devices are based on events of this form. Even in the presence of state-dependence, ambiguity, and ambiguity aversion, an individual’s betting preferences over almost-objective events are based solely on their attitudes toward objective risk, and can fully predict (or be predicted from) their behavior in an idealized casino. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-003-0449-1
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 24 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (07)
Pages: 1-54
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:24:y:2004:i:1:p:1-54

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Related research
Keywords: Subjective uncertainty; Almost-objective uncertainty.;

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nabil Al-Najjar & Luca Anderlini & Leonardo Felli, 2003. "Undescribable Contingencies," Discussion Papers 1370, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  2. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
  3. ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX, Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 04-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 2003-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2001. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Working Papers 1127, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs," Economics Working Papers 0034, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Zvi Safra & Uzi Segal, 2005. "Are Universal Preferences Possible? Calibration Results for Non-Expected Utility Theories," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 633, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Machina, 2002. "Robustifying the Classical Model of Risk Preferences and Beliefs," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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