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An Economic Analysis of Exclusion Restrictions for Instrumental Variable Estimation

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Author Info
Gerard J. van den Berg () (Princeton University, Free University Amsterdam, IFAU-Uppsala, IFS, CREST, CEPR and IZA)

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Abstract

Instrumental variable estimation requires untestable exclusion restrictions. With policy effects on individual outcomes, there is typically a time interval between the moment the agent realizes that he may be exposed to the policy and the actual exposure or the announcement of the actual treatment status. In such cases there is an incentive for the agent to acquire information on the value of the IV. This leads to violation of the exclusion restriction. We analyze this in a dynamic economic model framework. This provides a foundation of exclusion restrictions in terms of economic behavior. The results are used to describe policy evaluation settings in which instrumental variables are likely or unlikely to make sense. For the latter cases we analyze the asymptotic bias. The exclusion restriction is more likely to be violated if the outcome of interest strongly depends on interactions between the agent’s effort before the outcome is realized and the actual treatment status. The bias has the same sign as this interaction effect. Violation does not causally depend on the weakness of the candidate instrument or the size of the average treatment effect. With experiments, violation is more likely if the treatment and control groups are to be of similar size. We also address side-effects. We develop a novel economic interpretation of placebo effects and provide some empirical evidence for the relevance of the analysis.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2585.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2585

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Related research
Keywords: treatment policy evaluation information selection effects randomization placebo effect

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Public Policy
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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  1. Jonathan Levin & Susan Athey, 2001. "The Value of Information in Monotone Decision Problems," Working Papers 01003, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. van den Berg, Gerard & Lindeboom, Maarten & López, Marta, 2007. "Inequality in individual mortality and economic conditions earlier in life," Working Paper Series 2007:7, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lundin, Daniela & Mörk, Eva & Öckert, Björn, 2007. "Do reduced child care prices make parents work more?," Working Paper Series 2007:2, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andersson, Christian, 2007. "Teacher density and student achievement in Swedish compulsory schools," Working Paper Series 2007:5, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andersson, Christian & Waldenström, Nina, 2007. "Teacher supply and the market for teachers," Working Paper Series 2007:5, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jaap Abbring & Gerard van den Berg, 2005. "Social experiments and instrumental variables with duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W05/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Anup Malani, 2006. "Identifying Placebo Effects with Data from Clinical Trials," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 236-256, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  9. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Tat Y. Chan & Barton H. Hamilton, 2006. "Learning, Private Information, and the Economic Evaluation of Randomized Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 997-1040, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andersson, Christian, 2007. "Teacher density and student achievement in Swedish compulsory schools," Working Paper Series 2007:4, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nicola Persico, 2000. "Information Acquisition in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 135-148, January.
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  13. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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