IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14369.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Helm, Ines

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Stuhler, Jan

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract

We study the fiscal and tax response to intergovernmental grants, exploiting quasi-experimental variation within Germany's fiscal equalization scheme triggered by Census revisions of official population counts. Municipal budgets do not adjust instantly. Instead, spending and investments adapt within five years to revenue gains, while adjustment to revenue losses is more rapid. Yet, the long-run response is symmetric. The tax response is particularly slow, stretching over more than a decade. Well-known empirical "anomalies" in public finance such as the flypaper effect are thus primarily a short-run phenomenon, while long-run fiscal behavior appears more consistent with standard theories of fiscal federalism.

Suggested Citation

  • Helm, Ines & Stuhler, Jan, 2021. "The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 14369, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14369
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp14369.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leo Feler & Mine Z. Senses, 2017. "Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 101-143, November.
    2. Gordon, Nora, 2004. "Do federal grants boost school spending? Evidence from Title I," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1771-1792, August.
    3. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    5. Elena Gennari & Giovanna Messina, 2014. "How sticky are local expenditures in Italy? Assessing the relevance of the flypaper effect through municipal data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 324-344, April.
    6. Heléne Lundqvist, 2015. "Granting public or private consumption? Effects of grants on local public spending and income taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(1), pages 41-72, February.
    7. Chang Liu & Guangrong Ma, 2016. "Taxation without representation: local fiscal response to intergovernmental transfers in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(5), pages 854-874, October.
    8. Buettner, Thiess & Wildasin, David E., 2006. "The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1115-1132, August.
    9. Egger, Peter & Koethenbuerger, Marko & Smart, Michael, 2010. "Do fiscal transfers alleviate business tax competition? Evidence from Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 235-246, April.
    10. Foremny, Dirk & Riedel, Nadine, 2014. "Business taxes and the electoral cycle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-61.
    11. Gamkhar, Shama & Oates, Wallace E., 1996. "Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants: Some Empirical Findings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 501-12, December.
    12. Maria Martin-Rodriguez & Hikaru Ogawa, 2017. "The Empirics Of The Municipal Fiscal Adjustment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 831-853, July.
    13. Baicker, Katherine, 2001. "Government decision-making and the incidence of federal mandates," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 147-194, November.
    14. Andrew C. Eggers & Ronny Freier & Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 210-229, January.
    15. Wallace E. Oates & Wallace E. Oates, 2004. "An Essay on Fiscal Federalism," Chapters, in: Environmental Policy and Fiscal Federalism, chapter 22, pages 384-414, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Matz Dahlberg & Eva Johansson, 1998. "The revenues-expenditures nexus: panel data evidence from Swedish municipalities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1379-1386.
    17. Byron Lutz, 2010. "Taxation with Representation: Intergovernmental Grants in a Plebiscite Democracy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 316-332, May.
    18. Brian Knight, 2002. "Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 71-92, March.
    19. Albert Sol魏ll頍 & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2012. "The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets: does Spain behave differently?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3203-3213, September.
    20. Bruno Heyndels, 2001. "Asymmetries in the flypaper effect: empirical evidence for the Flemish municipalities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1329-1334.
    21. Bessho, Shun-ichiro & Ogawa, Hikaru, 2015. "Fiscal adjustment in Japanese municipalities," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1053-1068.
    22. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2017. "Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 253-292, May.
    23. Melo, Ligia, 2002. "The Flypaper Effect under Different Institutional Contexts: The Colombian Case," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 111(3-4), pages 317-345, June.
    24. Elizabeth U. Cascio & Nora Gordon & Sarah Reber, 2013. "Local Responses to Federal Grants: Evidence from the Introduction of Title I in the South," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 126-159, August.
    25. Janeba, Eckhard & Osterloh, Steffen, 2013. "Tax and the city — A theory of local tax competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 89-100.
    26. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "How Forward-Looking Are Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 97776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2019.
    27. Bailey, Stephen J & Connolly, Stephen, 1998. "The Flypaper Effect: Identifying Areas for Further Research," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 335-361, June.
    28. Shama Gamkhar & Wallace Oates & Shama Gamkhar & Wallace Oates, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants: Some Empirical Findings," Chapters, in: Environmental Policy and Fiscal Federalism, chapter 15, pages 261-272, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    29. Robert P. Inman, 2008. "The Flypaper Effect," NBER Working Papers 14579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2019. "Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States," NBER Working Papers 25457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Foremny, Dirk & Jofre-Monseny, Jordi & Solé-Ollé, Albert, 2017. "‘Ghost citizens': Using notches to identify manipulation of population-based grants," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 49-66.
    32. James R. Hines & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "The Flypaper Effect," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 217-226, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "Revenue Persistence and Public Service Delivery," MPRA Paper 114464, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2022.
    2. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    3. Shani, Ron & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Vigoda-Gadot, Eran, 2023. "Intergovernmental grants and local public finance: An empirical examination in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2023. "Intergovernmental Grants and Policy Competition: Concepts, Institutions, and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Policy Responses to Tax Competition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nora Gordon & Sarah Reber, 2020. "Federal Aid to School Districts during the COVID-19 Recession," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 781-804, September.
    6. Flynn, Patrick & Smith, Tucker, 2022. "Rivers, lakes and revenue streams: The heterogeneous effects of Clean Water Act grants on local spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel E. Lago & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2022. "On the effects of intergovernmental grants: a survey," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2204, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    2. Flynn, Patrick & Smith, Tucker, 2022. "Rivers, lakes and revenue streams: The heterogeneous effects of Clean Water Act grants on local spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo, 2021. "Testing regional intergovernmental transfers effects in Uruguay," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 2(4), pages 6-38.
    4. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "Revenue Persistence and Public Service Delivery," MPRA Paper 114464, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2022.
    5. Chang Liu & Guangrong Ma, 2016. "Taxation without representation: local fiscal response to intergovernmental transfers in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(5), pages 854-874, October.
    6. Yihua Yu & Jing Wang & Xi Tian, 2016. "Identifying the Flypaper Effect in the Presence of Spatial Dependence: Evidence from Education in China's Counties," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 93-110, March.
    7. Becker, Johannes & Hopp, Daniel & Kriebel, Michael, 2020. "Mental accounting of public funds – The flypaper effect in the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 321-336.
    8. Thushyanthan Baskaran, 2016. "Intergovernmental Transfers, Local Fiscal Policy, and the Flypaper Effect: Evidence from a German State," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(1), pages 1-40, March.
    9. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    10. Luigi Marattin & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Porcelli, 2022. "Revenue vs expenditure based fiscal consolidation: the pass-through from federal cuts to local taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 834-872, August.
    11. Antti Saastamoinen & Mika Kortelainen, 2020. "When Does Money Stick in Education? Evidence from A Kinked Grant Rule," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(4), pages 708-735, Fall.
    12. Vicente Rios & Miriam Hortas-Rico & Pedro Pascual, 2022. "What shapes the flypaper effect? The role of the political environment in the budget process," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 793-820, September.
    13. Federico Revelli, 2013. "Tax Mix Corners and Other Kinks," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 741-776.
    14. Juan González Alegre, 2012. "An evaluation of EU regional policy. Do structural actions crowd out public spending?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Elena Gennari & Giovanna Messina, 2014. "How sticky are local expenditures in Italy? Assessing the relevance of the flypaper effect through municipal data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 324-344, April.
    16. Ergete Ferede & Shahidul Islam, 2016. "Block Grants and Education Expenditure," Public Finance Review, , vol. 44(5), pages 635-659, September.
    17. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "How Forward-Looking Are Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 97776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2019.
    18. Bev Dahlby & Ergete Ferede, 2016. "The stimulative effects of intergovernmental grants and the marginal cost of public funds," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(1), pages 114-139, February.
    19. Marko Köthenbürger & Gabriel Loumeau, 2023. "Tax Responses in Local Public Finance: The Flypaper Effect at Work," CESifo Working Paper Series 10354, CESifo.
    20. Kattenberg, Mark & Vermeulen, Wouter, 2017. "The stimulative effect of an unconditional block grant on the decentralized provision of care," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86956, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intergovernmental grants; government spending; local taxation; flypaper effect; fiscal transfers; Census Shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.