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Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program

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Brian Knight

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Abstract

Contrary to simple theoretical predictions, existing evidence suggests that federal grants do not crowd out state government spending. A legislative bargaining model with endogenous grants documents a positive correlation between grant receipts and preferences for public goods; this correlation has likely biased existing work against measuring crowd-out. To correct for such endogeneity, the model motivates instruments based on the political power of state congressional delegations. Exploiting this exogenous variation in grants, the instrumental variables estimator reports crowd-out that is statistically and economically significant. This endogeneity may explain the flypaper effect, a nonequivalence between grant receipts and private income. (JEL D70, H40, H77)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/000282802760015612
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 92 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 71-92
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:92:y:2002:i:1:p:71-92

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hamilton, Bruce W., 1983. "The flypaper effect and other anomalies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 347-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Filimon, Radu & Romer, Thomas & Rosenthal, Howard, 1982. "Asymmetric information and agenda control : The bases of monopoly power in public spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-70, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. William T. Bogart & David F. Bradford & Michael G. Williams, 1993. "Incidence and Allocation Effects of a State Fiscal Policy Shift: The Florio Initiatives in New Jersey," NBER Working Papers 4177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Ramon Marimon, 1997. "The economics of split-ticket voting in representative democracies," Working Papers 582, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bailey, Stephen J & Connolly, Stephen, 1998. " The Flypaper Effect: Identifying Areas for Further Research," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 335-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hamilton, Jonathan H., 1986. "The flypaper effect and the deadweight loss from taxation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 148-155, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  8. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 2000. "Unnatural Experiments? Estimating the Incidence of Endogenous Policies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(467), pages F672-94, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Weingast, Barry R & Marshall, William J, 1988. "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 132-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Feldstein, Martin S, 1975. "Wealth Neutrality and Local Choice in Public Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 75-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Weingast, Barry R & Shepsle, Kenneth A & Johnsen, Christopher, 1981. "The Political Economy of Benefits and Costs: A Neoclassical Approach to Distributive Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 642-64, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Moffitt, Robert A., 1984. "The effects of grants-in-aid on state and local expenditures : The case of AFDC," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 279-305, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cornwell, Christopher & Schmidt, Peter & Wyhowski, Donald, 1992. "Simultaneous equations and panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 151-181. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Nechyba, Thomas J, 1997. "Local Property and State Income Taxes: The Role of Interjurisdictional Competition and Collusion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 351-84, April.
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  16. Bradford, David F & Oates, Wallace E, 1971. "An Analysis of Revenue Sharing in a New Approach to Collective Fiscal Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 416-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Timothy Besley & Stephen Coate, 1999. "Centralized versus Decentralized Provision of Local Public Goods: A Political Economy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Becker, Elizabeth, 1996. " The Illusion of Fiscal Illusion: Unsticking the Flypaper Effect," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 86(1-2), pages 85-102, January.
  19. Hines, James R, Jr & Thaler, Richard H, 1995. "The Flypaper Effect," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 217-26, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Alvarez, R Michael & Saving, Jason L, 1997. " Congressional Committees and the Political Economy of Federal Outlays," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(1-2), pages 55-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Baron, David P & Ferejohn, John, 1987. "Bargaining and Agenda Formation in Legislatures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 303-09, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Wittman, Donald, 1989. "Why Democracies Produce Efficient Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1395-1424, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Singhal, Monica, 2006. "Special Interest Groups and the Allocation of Public Funds," Working Paper Series rwp06-004, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dahlberg, Matz & Mörk, Eva & Rattso, Jorn & Ågren, Hanna, 2006. "Using a discontinuous grant rule to identify the effect of grants on local taxes and spending," Working Paper Series 2006:25, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Byron F. Lutz, 2006. "Taxation with representation: intergovernmental grants in a plebiscite democracy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Kalb, Alexander, 2008. "The Impact of Intergovernmental Grants on Cost Efficiency: Theory and Evidence from German Municipalities," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-051, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Freinkman, Lev & Plekhanov, Alexander, 2005. "What determines the extent of fiscal decentralization ? The Russian paradox," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3710, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bondonio, Daniele, 2009. "Impact identification strategies for evaluating business incentive programs," P.O.L.I.S. department's Working Papers 129, Department of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS. [Downloadable!]
  7. Matz Dahlberg & Eva Mörk & Jørn Rattsø & Hanna Ågren, 2006. "Using a Discontinuous Grant to Identify the Effect of Grants on Local Taxes and Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  8. Brian Knight, 2004. "Bargaining in Legislatures: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 10530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Steven Deller & Craig Maher & Victor Lledo, 2002. "Wisconsin Local Government, State Shared Revenues and the Illusive Flypaper Effect," Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Staff Papers 451, Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Dahlberg, Matz & Lundqvist, Heléne & Mörk, Eva, 2008. "Intergovernmental Grants and Bureaucratic Power," Working Paper Series 2008:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Brian Knight, 2003. "Parochial Interests and the Centralized Provision of Local Public Goods: Evidence from Congressional Voting on Transportation Projects," NBER Working Papers 9748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Daniel M. Hungerman, 2007. "Diversity and Crowd-out: A Theory of Cold-Glow Giving," NBER Working Papers 13348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2006. "Capital grants and regional public investment in Spain: fungibility of aid or crowding-in effect?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1737-1747, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2009. "Asymmetric and Non-Linear Adjustments in Local Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Brian Knight, 2005. "Estimating the Value of Proposal Power," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1639-1652, December. [Downloadable!]
  16. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Fernando Ferreira & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "The Value of School Facilities: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Papers 14516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Deller, Steven & Maher, Craig & Lledo, Victor, 2002. "Wisconsin Local Government, State Shared Revenues and the Illusive Flypaper Effect," Staff Paper Series 451, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. G Frechette & J Kagel & M Morelli, 2004. "Behavioral Identification in Coalition Bargaining: An Experimental Analysis of Demand Bargaining and Alternating Offers," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000006, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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