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The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany

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  • Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Kvasnicka, Michael

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

We study the impact of the 2015 mass arrival of refugees to Germany on residential housing rents. Using unique data on end of year county-level refugee populations and data on monthly offers of flats for rent from Germany's leading online property broker Immobilienscout24, we find strong evidence in difference-in-differences regressions for a negative effect of refugee immigration on rental prices. Adverse price effects, however, appear attenuated in the heyday of the crisis in late 2015 if a larger share of refugees is housed in decentralized accommodation. Various robustness checks corroborate our findings, including IV regressions that exploit for identification information on the pre-crisis location of refugee reception centers and group quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Kürschner Rauck, Kathleen & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2018. "The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12047, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12047
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    Cited by:

    1. Breidenbach Philipp & Schaffner Sandra, 2020. "Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 401-416, September.
    2. Eren Aydin & Kathleen Kürschner Rauck, 2023. "Low-emission zones, modes of transport and house prices: evidence from Berlin’s commuter belt," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 1847-1895, October.
    3. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Albarosa, Emanuele & Elsner, Benjamin, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 15850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Prömel, Christopher, 2021. "Belonging or estrangement: The European refugee crisis and its effects on immigrant identity," Discussion Papers 2021/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Christopher Prömel, 2022. "Belonging or Estrangement – The European Refugee Crisis and its Effects on Immigrant Identity," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1160, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    7. Hennig, Jakob, 2021. "Neighborhood quality and opposition to immigration: Evidence from German refugee shelters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Umut Unal & Bernd Hayo & Isil Erol, 2022. "The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202238, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Felix Stips & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2020. "The impact of co-national networks on asylum seekers’ employment: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Giesselmann, Marco & Brady, David & Naujoks, Tabea, 2021. "The social consequences of the increase in refugees to Germany 2015-2016," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship Inequality and Social Policy SP I 2021-502, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    15. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "How do new immigration flows affect existing immigrants? Evidence from the refugee crisis in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 579, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Albarosa,Emanuele & Elsner,Benjamin, 2022. "Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9913, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugee migration; housing rents; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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