Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Is The Market Over-Optimistic About The Prospects Of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence For The Spanish Market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • María Jesús Pastor

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

Previous evidence has documented that equity issuers underperform in the long-run. One possible explanation is that investors have overoptimistic expectations regarding future earnings and the underperformance occurs as these expectations are corrected over time. Our central focus is to test this hypothesis for Spanish rights issuing firms, for that, firstly we examine analysts? predictions about future earnings of these companies. We observe that forecasts are unusually favourable and, moreover, the post-offering underperformance is most pronounced when analyst predictions have higher optimistic bias. Secondly, we study the market response to issuing firms? earnings announcements in the post-offering period observing a significant negative reaction. So the evidence in this paper is consistent with the excessive optimism hypothesis about issuing firms. Evidencia previa ha documentado que las empresas que amplían capital experimentanrentabilidades anormales negativas en el largo plazo. Una posible explicación es que losinversores tienen expectativas excesivamente optimistas sobre los beneficios futuros de estascompañías y la evolución observada se debe a la corrección gradual de este exceso deoptimismo. El principal objeto de este trabajo es contrastar esta hipótesis para las emisionescon derechos en el mercado español. Para ello, en primer lugar se examinan los pronósticos delos analistas sobre los beneficios futuros de las empresas emisoras. Se observa que laspredicciones para estas compañías son inusualmente favorables y, además, la peor evolución alargo plazo es más pronunciada cuando las predicciones son más optimistas. En segundolugar, se estudia la reacción del mercado a los anuncios de beneficios de las compañíasemisoras los años siguientes a la oferta, observando una reacción significativamente negativa.Por tanto, la evidencia aportada en este trabajo es consistente con la hipótesis de expectativasexcesivamente optimistas sobre las empresas que deciden ampliar capital.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2004-06.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2004
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2004-06.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2004-06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: C/ Guardia Civil, 22, Esc 2a, 1o, E-46020 VALENCIA
Phone: +34 96 319 00 50
Fax: +34 96 319 00 55
Email:
Web page: http://www.ivie.es/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Finanzas corporativas; ampliaciones de capital; predicciones de beneficios Corporate Finance; Seasoned Equity Offerings; Earnings Forecasting.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih-Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, 02.
  2. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
  3. Kothari, S. P. & Warner, Jerold B., 1997. "Measuring long-horizon security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 301-339, March.
  4. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2000. "Long-Term Performance of Seasoned Equity Offerings: Benchmark Errors and Biases in Expectations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(3), Fall.
  5. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
  6. Brous, Peter A. & Datar, Vinay & Kini, Omseh, 2001. "Is the Market Optimistic about the Future Earnings of Seasoned Equity Offering Firms?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(02), pages 141-168, June.
  7. Marcia Millon Cornett & Hamid Mehran & Hassan Tehranian, 1998. "Are Financial Markets Overly Optimistic about the Prospects of Firms That Issue Equity? Evidence from Voluntary versus Involuntary Equity Issuances by Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2139-2159, December.
  8. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
  9. Jun Cai, 1998. "The long-run performance following Japanese rights issues," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 419-434.
  10. Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
  11. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
  12. Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2000. "Do firms mislead investors by overstating earnings before seasoned equity offerings?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 339-371, June.
  13. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
  14. Lee, Inmoo, 1997. " Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1439-66, September.
  15. Denis, David J. & Sarin, Atulya, 2001. "Is the Market Surprised by Poor Earnings Realizations following Seasoned Equity Offerings?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(02), pages 169-193, June.
  16. Siew Hong Teoh & T. J. Wong, 2002. "Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts' Credulity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 869-900.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2004-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.