IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/198701010800009611.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products

Author

Listed:
  • Awad, Taleb Mohammad

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the effects of a monetary policy change by a given country on the world soybean and products markets. A system of bilateral exchange rate equations is incorporated into a multi-country nonspatial price equilibrium model of world soybean and products markets. The bilateral exchange rate equations are based on a stock-flow approach to exchange rate determination and do not require either the purchasing power parity nor the interest parity conditions to hold. In addition, exchange rate expectations are endogenized in the model using an extrapolative, quasi-rational approach. The regional soybean, soymeal, and soyoil submodels are linked through price transmission equations and trade flow identities;The model is estimated using a nonlinear, two-stage least squares estimator. A set of dynamic simulations of a change in U.S. monetary policy are conducted. The simulations account for the effects of monetary policy on the general price levels in each country as well as the joint product effects. In the dynamic simulations, a one percent, sustained increase in the growth rate of U.S. money supply (M1) was simulated over the period of flexible exchange rates (1971-1982);The dynamic policy simulation analysis provides strong evidence of a significant impact of a change in U.S. monetary policy on the U.S. and world soybean and products markets over the long run. The simulated expansion in the growth rate of U.S. money supply resulted in higher real prices and exports of soybeans and joint products in the U.S., lower real prices and higher imports of soybeans and products in importing countries, and lower real prices and exports of soybeans and products by U.S. export competitors. Furthermore, the monetary effects tended to be larger for the joint products (soymeal and soyoil) than for the primary product (soybeans) in all trading countries. Ignoring the global inflationary adjustments to a U.S. monetary policy change tends to over-estimate the impacts of monetary policy on U.S. markets over time. Finally, the study provides strong evidence that ignoring the simultaneous interaction of a primary commodity and its joint products tends to seriously overestimate the effects of a change in monetary policy on the primary commodity and to underestimate the effects on the joint products.

Suggested Citation

  • Awad, Taleb Mohammad, 1987. "International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products," ISU General Staff Papers 198701010800009611, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198701010800009611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/258fb3d9-330a-4908-b9e0-fe70d39f17ff/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale W. Jorgenson & Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1974. "Efficient Estimation of Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations with Additive Disturbances," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 615-640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Griffith, Garry R. & Meilke, Karl D., 1982. "A Structural Econometric Model of the World Markets for Rapeseed, Soybeans and Their Products," Working Papers 146655, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dallas S. Batten & Michael T. Belongia, 1984. "The recent decline in agricultural exports: is the exchange rate the culprit?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Oct), pages 5-14.
    5. Takayama, Akira & Drabicki, John Z., 1976. "On the Endogenous Supply of Money," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 27(4), pages 336-348, October.
    6. William H. Branson, 1984. "Exchange Rate Policy after a Decade of "Floating"," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 79-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mish83-1, May.
    8. Huyser, Wipada Soonthornsima, 1983. "A regional analysis of trade policies affecting the soybean and soymeal market," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008638, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 560-566.
    10. Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 246-251, May.
    11. Dennis R. Starleaf & William H. Meyers & Womack Abner W., 1985. "The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(2), pages 384-389.
    12. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Orden, David Robert, 1984. "Capital Flows, the Exchange Rate, and Agricultural Commodity Markets," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 322833, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    14. Driskill, Robert A, 1981. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 357-371, April.
    15. Pagoulatos, Emilio & Shonkwiler, J. Scott & Canler, Edward, 1984. "An Empirical Analysis Of Macroeconomic Factors Influencing The Agricultural Exchange Rate Of The Dollar," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 279078, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    17. Nerlove, Marc, 1958. "Distributed Lags and Demand Analysis for Agricultural and Other Commodities," Technical Resources 316559, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, Transportation and Marketing Program.
    18. Starleaf, Dennis R., 1982. "Macroeconomic Policies and Their Impact Upon the Farm Sector," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279148, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Haas, Richard D & Alexander, William E, 1979. "A Model of Exchange Rates and Capital Flows: The Canadian Floating Rate Experience," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 467-482, November.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot., 1986. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Economics Working Papers 8603, University of California at Berkeley.
    21. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
    23. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    24. Stanley W. Black, 1972. "International money markets and flexible exchange rates," Staff Studies 70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    26. M.S. Mark Denbaly & Gary W. Williams, 1988. "U.S. Money Supply and the Exchange Rate: Long-Run Effects on the World Feedgrain Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 10(1), pages 49-62.
    27. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomics and U.S. agricultural policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9411m70q, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    28. Gary W. Williams & Robert L. Thompson, 1984. "Brazilian Soybean Policy: The International Effects of Intervention," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(4), pages 488-498.
    29. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1983. "Introduction to "A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models"," NBER Chapters, in: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
    31. Canler, Edward & Pagoulatos, Emilio, 1983. "Some Determinants of an Agricultural Exchange Rate in the Short Run," Staff Paper Series 240667, University of Florida, Food and Resource Economics Department.
    32. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
    33. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    34. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, May.
    35. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    36. Orden, David, 1984. "Capital Flows, The Exchange Rate And Agricultural Commodity Markets: Some Empirical Evidence," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 279070, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    37. Robert G. Chambers, 1984. "Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short Run," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 12-24.
    38. Dennis R. Starleaf, 1982. "Macroeconomic Policies and Their Impact Upon the Farm Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(5), pages 854-860, December.
    39. G. Edward Schuh, 1974. "The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13.
    40. Starleaf, Dennis R. & Meyers, William H. & Womack, Abner W., 1985. "The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10858, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    41. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    42. Dennis R. Starleaf, 1982. "Macroeconomic Policies and Their Impact Upon the Farm Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(5), pages 854-860.
    43. Hans Genberg, 1984. "Properties of Innovations in Spot and Forward Exchange Rates and the Role of Money Supply Processes," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 153-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Maury E. Bredahl & William H. Meyers & Keith J. Collins, 1979. "The Elasticity of Foreign Demand for U.S. Agricultural Products: The Importance of the Price Transmission Elasticity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 58-63.
    45. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zong-Shin, 1989. "Monetary policy, exchange rate, and effects on US wheat trade and domestic market in an imperfect competition framework," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010216, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Devadoss, S., 1985. "The impacts of monetary policies on US agriculture," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008837, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Denbaly, Massoud Said Mark, 1984. "U. S. monetary policy and the exchange rate: effects on the world coarse grain market," ISU General Staff Papers 198401010800008753, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    7. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    8. Keith Pilbeam, 2001. "Economic Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Movements," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 55-64.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    10. Kondo, Koji, 1997. "Statistical analysis of foreign exchange rates: application of cointegration model and regime-switching stochastic volatility model," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000012997, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    13. Tegene, Abebayehu, 1990. "The Impact of Macrovariables on the Farm Sector: Some Further Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 77-86, July.
    14. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomic environment for U.S. agricultural policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2561m38d, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    15. Kholdy, Shady & Sohrabian, Ahmad, 1995. "Testing for the relationship between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134.
    16. Devadoss, S. & Meyers, Williams H. & Starleaf, Dennis R., 1985. "The Impacts Of U.S. Monetary Policies On The Farm Sector," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278595, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    19. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    21. V. H. Smith & J. S. Lapp, 1993. "Relative Price Variability Among Agricultural Commodities And Macroeconomic Instability In The United Kingdom," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 272-283, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198701010800009611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.