Economic Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Movements
AbstractThis paper provides a non-parametric test of modern exchange rate models that is an alternative to econometric methods. The economic fundamentals from three well-known exchange rate theories are used to devise quarterly net predictions for the movement of sterling against four major currencies over the period 1973-98. Each model is examined under six expectations mechanisms. Although the test can lead to very diverse predictions from different models, it is shown that there is very little difference in the predictive success of rival exchange rate theories. The paper shows that the role assigned to market expectations is more crucial to the success of the models than the particular specification of the fundamental variables.We find some weak evidence to suggest that extrapolative and adaptive expectations mechanisms seem to offer a better specification of exchange rate expectations as compared to regressive and rational expectation mechanisms. One significant advantage of the test is that it can readily deal with hybrid models and heterogeneous expectations; however, neither route seems to improve exchange rate forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 15 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
"International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence,"
in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Backus, 1984.
"Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-46, November.
- David Backus, 1982. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Working Papers 463, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
- Boothe, Paul & Longworth, David, 1986. "Foreign exchange market efficiency tests: Implications of recent empirical findings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 135-152, June.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987. "Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Economics Working Papers 8752, University of California at Berkeley.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.