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Modeling Stochastic Crop Yield Expectations with a Limiting Beta Distribution

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  • Hennessy, David A.

Abstract

The use of plausible stochastic price processes in price risk analysis has allowed advances not seen in crop yield risk analysis. This study develops a stochastic process for yield modeling and risk management. The Pólya urn process is an internally consistent dynamic representation of yield expectations over a growing season that accommodates agronomic events such as growing degree days. The limiting distribution is the commonly used beta distribution. Binomial tree analysis of the process allows us to explore hedging decisions and crop valuation. The method is empirically flexible to accommodate alternative assumptions on the growing environment, such as intra-season input decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 35020.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2012
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2011, vol. 36 no. 1, pp. 177-191
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:35020

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Related research

Keywords: crop insurance; crop abandonment; stochastic process; derivative analsysis; growing degree days;

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References

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  1. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
  2. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
  3. Jerry R. Skees & Jason Hartell & Anne G. Murphy, 2007. "Using Index-Based Risk Transfer Products to Facilitate Micro Lending in Peru and Vietnam," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1255-1261.
  4. Robert Innes, 2003. "Crop Insurance in a Political Economy: An Alternative Perspective on Agricultural Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 318-335.
  5. Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2000. "The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 541-555.
  6. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(03), December.
  7. Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  8. Roosen, Jutta & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Tests For The Role Of Risk Aversion On Input Use," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20498, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  9. Woodard, Joshua D. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), April.
  10. Octavio A. Ram�rez & Tanya McDonald, 2006. "Ranking Crop Yield Models: A Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1105-1110.
  11. Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard E., 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," Staff General Research Papers 5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Oliver Musshoff, 2008. "Indifference Pricing of Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 979-993.
  13. Vincent H. Smith & Barry K. Goodwin, 1996. "Crop Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Agricultural Chemical Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 428-438.
  14. Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan M. & Crissman, Charles C., 1994. "Econometric Production Models With Endogenous Input Timing: An Application To Ecuadorian Potato Production," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
  15. Roger Claassen & Richard E. Just, 2010. "Heterogeneity and Distributional Form of Farm-Level Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(1), pages 144-160.
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Cited by:
  1. Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua & Thornsbury, Suzanne, 2013. "Extreme Events and Land Use Decisions under Climate Change in Tart Cherry Industry in Michigan," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150568, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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