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"Inequality of subjective economic uncertainty and individual economic prospects in the pandemic period"

Author

Listed:
  • Montserrat Guillen

    (Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona.)

  • Miguel Santolino

    (Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona.)

  • Xenxo Vidal-Llana

    (Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona.)

Abstract

During a pandemic period, uncertainty about the evolution of the economy is expected to increase, conditioning the economic decisions of individuals. This article studies which factors influence the appearance of subjective economic uncertainty and what are the economic expectations of individuals. The impact of the pandemic on the household economy and the subjective uncertainty that individuals express about the future economic situation of their households are analyzed based on a set of socioeconomic factors that cannot be considered in macroeconomic studies on uncertainty. We use data from a survey conducted in October 2021 taking a representative sample of the population residing in Catalonia (Spain) with a total of 1,604 people interviewed. The results suggest that, when controlling for all other factors, individuals in households with greater saving capacity are those who express less uncertainty regarding their future economic situation and women show greater future uncertainty than men. This study finds evidence that there is an association between the age of the interviewees and economic expectations, with older people being the most pessimistic. However, it is concluded that age is not associated with a greater presence of subjective uncertainty, which means that there has not been a deterioration of confidence beyond retirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Montserrat Guillen & Miguel Santolino & Xenxo Vidal-Llana, 2022. ""Inequality of subjective economic uncertainty and individual economic prospects in the pandemic period"," IREA Working Papers 202202, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202202
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    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2022/202202.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic behavior; Expectations; Survey; Savings; Lockdown; Pandemic; Inequality. JEL classification: C83; D14; D31; G41.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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