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Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030): an exploratory, model-based assessment

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The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. "Bioeconomy 2030" projects a reference scenario ('business as usual') and compares it with two distinct policy narratives ('Outward-looking' and 'Inward-looking') to understand the drivers of EU's bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy.

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  • George Philippidis & Robert M’barek & Emanuele Ferrari, 2016. "Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030): an exploratory, model-based assessment," JRC Research Reports JRC98160, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc98160
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    1. Robert M'barek & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Pierre Boulanger & Arnaldo Caivano & Pavel Ciaian & Hasan Dudu & Maria Espinosa Goded & Thomas Fellmann & Emanuele Ferrari & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma & Celso Gorri, 2017. "Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020," JRC Research Reports JRC108449, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Claudia Parisi & Tévécia Ronzon, 2016. "A global view of bio-based industries: benchmarking and monitoring their economic importance and future developments," JRC Research Reports JRC103038, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Rolf Meyer, 2017. "Bioeconomy Strategies: Contexts, Visions, Guiding Implementation Principles and Resulting Debates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-32, June.
    4. George B. Frisvold & Steven M. Moss & Andrea Hodgson & Mary E. Maxon, 2021. "Understanding the U.S. Bioeconomy: A New Definition and Landscape," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Boulanger, Pierre H & Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & M'barek, Robert & Philippidis, George, 2017. "2030 European agricultural policy: A new CAP at a crossroad between market competitiveness and sustainability," Conference papers 332882, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. José G. Vargas-Hernández & Karina Pallagst & Patricia Hammer, 2017. "Bio economy’s institutional and policy framework for the sustainable development of nature´s ecosystems," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 2(3), pages 51-104.
    7. Boulanger, P. & Dudu, H. & Ferrari, E. & M'Barek, R. & Philippidis, G., 2018. "Impacts of a NoCAP Scenario on Sub-Saharan Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277427, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Robert M’Barek & George Philippidis & Tevecia Ronzon, 2019. "Alternative global transition pathways to 2050: Prospects for the bioeconomy?," JRC Research Reports JRC118064, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Therese Bennich & Salim Belyazid, 2017. "The Route to Sustainability—Prospects and Challenges of the Bio-Based Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-18, May.

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    Keywords

    bioeconomy; modelling; agriculture; CGE; CAP; biofuel; trade; GHG;
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