IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Troy D Matheson

Abstract

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear to mask large and offsetting errors related to the output gap and the policy interest rate, partly reflecting a tendency to overestimate the neutral nominal policy rate in real time. Faced with these uncertainties, the Governing Council’s gradual approach to changing its policy settings appears to have served it well.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2019. "How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2019/190, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=48541
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    3. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gelfer, Sacha, 2021. "Evaluating the forecasting power of an open-economy DSGE model when estimated in a data-Rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin, 2023. "A solution to the global identification problem in DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    5. Mădălin Viziniuc, 2017. "Potential Gains from Cooperation Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: The Case of an Emerging Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 420-452, September.
    6. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    7. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    8. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Cúrdia, Vasco & Finocchiaro, Daria, 2013. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773.
    10. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(4), pages 831-858, June.
    11. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, September.
    12. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    13. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    14. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Gauthier Vermandel, 2015. "Quelle prise en compte des caractéristiques nationales dans les mesures macroprudentielles en zone euro ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 95-141.
    15. Allan Wright & Patrice Borda, 2016. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations Under Natural Disaster Shocks in Central America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97076, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Chanamart Intapan & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Pairach Piboonrungroj, 2021. "Forecasting for the Optimal Numbers of COVID-19 Infection to Maintain Economic Circular Flows of Thailand," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Eric Jondeau & Gregory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2022. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Transition Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-45, Swiss Finance Institute.
    18. Gary Koop & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 300-314, July.
    19. Tatiana Kirsanova & Stephanus le Roux, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 99-152, December.
    20. Yuan, Shenguo & Wu, Zhouheng & Liu, Lanfeng, 2022. "The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.