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Mitigating the Deadly Embrace in Financial Cycles: Countercyclical Buffers and Loan-to-Value Limits

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  • Mr. Jaromir Benes
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Joannes Mongardini

Abstract

This paper presents a new version of MAPMOD (Mark II) to study the effectiveness of macroprudential regulations. We extend the original model by explicitly modeling the housing market. We show how household demand for housing, house prices, and bank mortgages are intertwined in what we call a deadly embrace. Without macroprudential policies, this deadly embrace naturally leads to housing boom and bust cycles, which can be very costly for the economy, as shown by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Joannes Mongardini, 2016. "Mitigating the Deadly Embrace in Financial Cycles: Countercyclical Buffers and Loan-to-Value Limits," IMF Working Papers 2016/087, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/087
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    5. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Anil K. Kashyap & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2019. "Financial Regulation In General Equilibrium," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 3, pages 27-77, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
    8. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    10. Mian, Atif & Sufi, Amir, 2015. "House of Debt," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226271651, September.
    11. Mr. Jaromir Benes & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD," IMF Working Papers 2014/056, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Anil K Kashyap & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2013. "An Integrated Framework for Analyzing Multiple Financial Regulations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 109-144, January.
    13. Michael Brei & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2014. "The leverage ratio over the cycle," BIS Working Papers 471, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56, december.
    3. Lozej, Matija & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model," Economic Letters 04/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Rania A. Al-Mashat & Mr. Ales Bulir & N. Nergiz Dinçer & Tibor Hlédik & Mr. Tomás Holub & Asya Kostanyan & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Armen Nurbekyan & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Hou Wang, 2018. "An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank," IMF Working Papers 2018/210, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    6. Ibrahima Sangaré, 2019. "Housing sector and optimal macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 129, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Andreea Maria Muraru, 2020. "The Impact of Global Tensions on the Economic and Financial Cycle in Romania," Postmodern Openings, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 115-128, October.
    8. Lo Duca, Marco & Hallissey, Niamh & Jurca, Pavol & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lima, Diana & Pirovano, Mara & Prapiestis, Algirdas & Saldías, Martín & Tereanu, Eugen & Bartal, Mehdi & Giedraitė, Edita, 2023. "The more the merrier? Macroprudential instrument interactions and effective policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 310, European Central Bank.
    9. Patrik Kupkovic & Martin Suster, 2020. "Identifying the Financial Cycle in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; house price; bank lending; LTV limit; risk matrix; credit cycle; lending behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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