IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2014-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jong-Won Yoon
  • Mr. Jinill Kim
  • Jungjin Lee

Abstract

The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jong-Won Yoon & Mr. Jinill Kim & Jungjin Lee, 2014. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," IMF Working Papers 2014/210, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/210
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42463
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. James B. Bullard & Carlos Garriga & Christopher J. Waller, 2012. "Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 419-440.
    3. Mr. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics—An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2008/008, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
    5. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 138-154, March.
    7. An, Chong-Bum & Jeon, Seung-Hoon, 2006. "Demographic change and economic growth: An inverted-U shape relationship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 447-454, September.
    8. Mr. Ian S McDonald & Serge Bésanger & Ross Guest, 2000. "Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2000/115, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    10. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    11. Axel B?rsch-Supan & Klaus H?rtl & Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 224-229, May.
    12. World Bank Group, 2016. "World Development Report 2016 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2016]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23347, December.
    13. Mr. Seok G Park, 2012. "Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space," IMF Working Papers 2012/164, International Monetary Fund.
    14. World Bank Group, 2015. "World Development Report 2015 [Informe sobre el desarrollo mundial 2015 : mente, sociedad y conducta - panorama general]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 20597, December.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    16. Mr. Olivier J Blanchard & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/003, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2012. "Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2014. "Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?," IMF Working Papers 2014/139, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/03, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    23. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges of Population Aging," IMF Working Papers 2006/095, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nassif, André & Morandi, Lucilene & Araújo, Eliane & Feijó, Carmem, 2020. "Economic development and stagnation in Brazil (1950–2011)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2021. "Monetary Policy with a State-Dependent Inflation Target in a Behavioral Two-Country Monetary Union Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    4. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    5. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    6. Federico Barbiellini Amidei & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "The contribution of demography to Italy's economic growth: a two-hundred-year-long story," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Duca, Ioana A. & Kenny, Geoff & Reuter, Andreas, 2018. "Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey," Working Paper Series 2196, European Central Bank.
    8. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2010. "Weathering the financial storm: The importance of fundamentals and flexibility," Economics Working Papers 2010-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Joshua Aizenman, 2016. "International Coordination and Precautionary Policies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 379-391, July.
    10. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2015. "Monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 409-431.
    12. Semmler, Willi & Tahri, Ibrahim, 2017. "Current account imbalances: A new approach to assess external debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 161-170.
    13. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
    14. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399574, HAL.
    15. repec:ecb:ecbops:2010161 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    17. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Vogel, Edgar & Ludwig, Alexander & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2017. "Aging and pension reform: extending the retirement age and human capital formation," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 81-107, January.
    19. Julia de Furquim Werneck Moreira & Gilberto de Assis Libânio, 2018. "Macroeconomic policies after the 2008 financial crisis: lessons from brazilian and chinese experiences," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 585, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    20. von Gaessler, Anne Edle & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2016. "Optimal education in times of ageing: The dependency ratio in the Uzawa–Lucas growth model," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 125-142.
    21. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Leão, Sérgio, 2016. "OTC derivatives: Impacts of regulatory changes in the non-financial sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 132-149.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; inflation; GDP; life expectancy; share; fertility rate; Demographic Changes; Population Aging; Macroeconomic Impact; Savings and Investment; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; population share; share variable; terms of trade; inflation behavior; influence saving; population change; Demographic change; Population growth; Aging; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.