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Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ian S McDonald
  • Serge Bésanger
  • Ross Guest

Abstract

This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ian S McDonald & Serge Bésanger & Ross Guest, 2000. "Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2000/115, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/115
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 372-373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 339-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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