IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2009-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

“Lost Decade” in Translation - What Japan’s Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Kiichi Tokuoka
  • Mr. Murtaza H Syed
  • Mr. Kenneth H Kang

Abstract

Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiichi Tokuoka & Mr. Murtaza H Syed & Mr. Kenneth H Kang, 2009. "“Lost Decade” in Translation - What Japan’s Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 2009/282, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23462
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-124, March.
    5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    6. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2002. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 536-558, December.
    8. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-2.
    9. Motonishi, Taizo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1999. "Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan during the 1990s: Financial or Real?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 181-200, September.
    10. MURATA Keiko & SAITOU Tatsuo, 2004. "The ESRI Short-Run Macroeconometric Model of Japanese Economy (2004 version) - Basic Structure, Multipliers, and Economic Policy Analyses -(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 122, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Naohiko Baba & Motoharu Nakashima & Yosuke Shigemi & Kazuo Ueda, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 31.
    13. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2007. "Equilibrium Interest Rate and the Yield Curve in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    14. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2002. "Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Working Paper Series WP02-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    15. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 2001. "Financial Policy and Central Banking in Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032856, December.
    16. C. Fred Bergsten & John Williamson (ed.), 2004. "Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr17, October.
    17. MATSUURA Katsumi & HORI Masahiro, 2003. "Special Credit Guarantee and Restructuring of Small Firms(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 050, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Hiroshi Nakaso, 2001. "The financial crisis in Japan during the 1990s: how the Bank of Japan responded and the lessons learnt," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 06.
    19. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Monetary Policy under Zero Interest Rate: Viewpoints of Central Bank Economists," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 89-130, February.
    20. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010. "Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
    21. Mr. David Woo & Mr. Akihiro Kanaya, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990's: Sources and Lessons," IMF Working Papers 2000/007, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Takatoshi Ito, 2006. "Japanese monetary policy: 1998-2005 and beyond," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 105-132, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
    24. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt," IMF Working Papers 2010/019, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin Yifu Lin & Doerte Doemeland, 2012. "Beyond Keynesianism: Global Infrastructure Investments In Times Of Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-29.
    2. Juan A. Núñez-Serrano & Francisco J. Velázquez, 2017. "Is Public Capital Productive? Evidence from a Meta-analysis," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 313-345.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morana, Claudio, 2004. "The Japanese stagnation: an assessment of the productivity slowdown hypothesis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 193-211, April.
    2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Coeuré & Pierre Jacquet & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2009. "The Crisis: Policy Lessons and Policy Challenges," Working Papers 2009-28, CEPII research center.
    3. Imai, Masami, 2022. "Local economic impacts of legislative malapportionment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Claudio Morana, 2006. "The End of the Japanese Stagnation: an Assessment of the Policy Solutions," ICER Working Papers 27-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    5. Michael Diemer & Uwe Vollmer, 2015. "What makes banking crisis resolution difficult? Lessons from Japan and the Nordic Countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 251-277, December.
    6. Hiroshi Ugai, 2006. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    7. Wako Watanabe, 2004. "Prudential Regulation, the Credit Crunch" and the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0617, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Adam Posen, 2003. "It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.),Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Inoue, Tomoo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "Were there structural breaks in the effects of Japanese monetary policy? Re-evaluating policy effects of the lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 320-342, September.
    10. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    11. W. R. Garside, 2012. "Japan’s Great Stagnation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14624.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kentaro Imai, 2013. "A Panel Study of eZombie f SMEs in Japan: Identification, Borrowing and Investment Behavior," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-16, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Raphael Fischer & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Regional heterogeneity, the rise of public debt and monetary policy in post-bubble Japan: lessons for the EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-428, April.
    15. Fricke, Daniel & Roukny, Tarik, 2020. "Generalists and specialists in the credit market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    17. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01n02), pages 1-25, February.
    19. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Yasuyuki Sawada & Michio Suzuki, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Covered Interest Parity in the Post GFC Period: Evidence from the Australian Dollar and the NZ Dollar," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1033, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    20. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "Deleveraging and Monetary Policy: Japan since the 1990s and the United States since 2007," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 177-202, Summer.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.