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Macroeconomic Implications for Hong Kong SAR of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy

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  • Mr. Papa M N'Diaye

Abstract

This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to create inflation in both goods and asset markets. Expansionary financial conditions will likely have a greater impact in fueling asset price inflation, manifested in the model through a strong increase in equity prices. Higher asset prices could, in turn, through a financial accelerator mechanism, lead to further credit expansion and an upward cycle of asset prices and credit. This cycle, if unchecked, can potentially feed into volatility in consumption, output and employment and complicate macroeconomic management. The simulation results suggest there is a role for countercyclical prudential regulations to mitigate the amplitude of the cycle and lessen the financial and macroeconomic volatility associated with an unwinding of the credit-asset price cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications for Hong Kong SAR of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2009/256, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/256
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 2010/034, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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