IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2005-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene

Abstract

One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed market expectations, implying a higher probability mass on crude oil prices remaining above the futures' level. These findings support the view that demand for futures contracts by investors could lead to excessively high price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options," IMF Working Papers 2005/174, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18459
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    2. Eberlein, Ernst & Keller, Ulrich & Prause, Karsten, 1998. "New Insights into Smile, Mispricing, and Value at Risk: The Hyperbolic Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 371-405, July.
    3. Dilip B. Madan & Frank Milne, 1991. "Option Pricing With V. G. Martingale Components," Working Paper 1159, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(5), pages 421-421.
    5. Peter Carr & Hélyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2003. "Stochastic Volatility for Lévy Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 345-382, July.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    7. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    9. Alan L. Lewis, 2001. "A Simple Option Formula for General Jump-Diffusion and other Exponential Levy Processes," Related articles explevy, Finance Press.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1392 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
    2. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/299, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kao, Lie-Jane & Wu, Po-Cheng & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2012. "Time-changed GARCH versus the GARJI model for prediction of extreme news events: An empirical study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-129.
    4. Eckhard Platen & Hardy Hulley, 2008. "Hedging for the Long Run," Research Paper Series 214, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Colino, Jesús P., 2008. "New stochastic processes to model interest rates : LIBOR additive processes," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws085316, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Jingzhi Huang & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time- Changed Levy Processes," Finance 0401002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chan, Tat Lung (Ron), 2019. "Efficient computation of european option prices and their sensitivities with the complex fourier series method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Winston Buckley & Sandun Perera, 2019. "Optimal demand in a mispriced asymmetric Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) economy," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, September.
    9. David S. Bates, 2009. "U.S. Stock Market Crash Risk, 1926-2006," NBER Working Papers 14913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    11. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2008. "Oil price dynamics (2002-2006)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2134-2153, September.
    12. Geman, Helyette, 2002. "Pure jump Levy processes for asset price modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1297-1316, July.
    13. Feng, Chengxiao & Tan, Jie & Jiang, Zhenyu & Chen, Shuang, 2020. "A generalized European option pricing model with risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    14. Khaled Salhi, 2017. "Pricing European options and risk measurement under exponential Lévy models — a practical guide," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02n03), pages 1-36, June.
    15. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 89-100.
    16. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    17. Liuren Wu, 2006. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1445-1474, May.
    18. Xu Guo & Yutian Li, 2016. "Valuation of American options under the CGMY model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1529-1539, October.
    19. Orzechowski Arkadiusz, 2018. "Pricing Correlation Options: from the P. Carr And D. Madan Approach to the New Method Based on the Fourier Transform," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 16-28, April.
    20. Paweł Kliber, 2019. "Continuous and jump changes in prices processes in the selected stock markets," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 54, pages 333-344.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; option price; futures price;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.