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Valutation, Liquidity and Risk in Government Bond Markets

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Author Info
Carlo Favero
Marco Pagano
Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

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Abstract

We explore the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds in the Euro area. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with a measure of the international risk factor. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor. We present a model that predicts that yield differentials should increase in both liquidity and risk, with an interaction term whose magnitude and sign depends on the size of the liquidity differential with respect to the reference country. Testing these predictions on daily data, we find that the international risk factor is consistently priced, while liquidity differentials are priced only for a subset of countries and their interaction with the risk factor is crucial to detect their effect.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 281.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:281

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 4718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Burton Hollifield & Michael Gallmeyer & Duane Seppi, 2004. "Liquidity Discovery and Asset Pricing," 2004 Meeting Papers 136a, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "The European Bond Markets Under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Biais, Bruno & Renucci, Antoine & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2004. "Liquidity and the Cost of Funds in the European Treasury Market," IDEI Working Papers 285, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano, 2003. "IPO underpricing and after-market liquidity," CSEF Working Papers 99, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dimitri Vayanos, 2004. "Flight to Quality, Flight to Liquidity, and the Pricing of Risk," NBER Working Papers 10327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Datar, Vinay T. & Y. Naik, Narayan & Radcliffe, Robert, 1998. "Liquidity and stock returns: An alternative test," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 203-219, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Goldreich & Bernd Hanke & Purnendu Nath, 2005. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kamara, Avraham, 1994. "Liquidity, Taxes, and Short-Term Treasury Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 403-417, September. [Downloadable!]
  18. Dunne, Peter & Moore, Michael J & Portes, Richard, 2002. "Defining Benchmark Status: An Application using Euro-Area Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 3490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Eleswarapu, Venkat R, 1997. " Cost of Transacting and Expected Returns in the Nasdaq Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2113-27, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ludger Schuknecht & Jürgen von Hagen & Guido Wolswijk, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market. EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Spillover Effects on Government Bond Yields in Euro Zone. Does Full Financial Integration Exist in European Government Bond Markets?," MPRA Paper 10162, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Menkveld, Albert J. & Cheung, Yiu C. & Jong, Frank de, 2006. "Euro-Area Sovereign Yield Dynamics: the role of order imbalance," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marta Gomez-Puig, 2007. "Eu-15 Sovereign Governments Cost Of Borrowing After Seven Years Of Monetary Union," IREA Working Papers 200711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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