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Liquidity Discovery and Asset Pricing

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  • Michael Gallmeyer
  • Burton Hollifield
  • Duane Seppi

Abstract

Asset prices are risky, in part, because of uncertainty about the preferences of potential counterparties and the terms-of-trade at which they will be willing to provide liquidity in the future. We call such randomness liquidity risk. We argue that liquidity risk is an important source of asymmetric information in addition to private information about future cash flows. We model the endogenous dynamics of liquidity risk, the risk premisum for bearing liquidity risk, and the role of market trading in the liquidity discovery process through which investors learn about their counterparties' preferences and their future demands for securities. We show that market liquidity is a forward-looking predictor of future risk and, as such, is prices. Our model also provides rational explanations for "prices support levels" and "flights to quality."

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2004-10.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-162320987

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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Web: http://student-3k.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

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Cited by:
  1. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
  2. Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2005. "Valutation, Liquidity and Risk in Government Bond Markets," Working Papers 281, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
  4. J.Ramon Martinez-Resano, 2005. "Size And Heterogeneity Matter. A Microstructure-Based Analysis Of Regulation Of Secondary Markets For Government Bonds," Finance 0508007, EconWPA.

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