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Modelling Politics

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  • Norman Schofield

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Abstract

Formal models of elections have emphasized the convergence of party leaders towards the center of the electoral distribution. This paper discusses various political episodes in British and US history to suggest that political divergence is generic. This leads to the inference that political choice involves electoral judgment as well as preference. The stochastic electoral model is extended to incorporate the basis of judgment, namely valence. The model suggests that when the electoral system is based on proportional electoral methods, then there will be numerous parties with very di¤erent valences, adopting very divergent positions. Under plurality rule, on the other hand, the role of activists appears to restrict the number of parties to two, and to cause a slow political rotation in the policy space.

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File URL: http://www.icer.it/docs/wp2007/ICERwp33-07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 33-2007.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:33-2007

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  1. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July.
  2. McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October.
  3. Aragones, Enriqueta & Palfrey, Thomas. R., 2000. "Mixed Equilibrium in a Downsian Model With a Favored Candidate," Working Papers 1102, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  4. North, Douglass C., 1993. "Economic Performance through Time," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1993-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
  5. Ansolabehere, Stephen & Snyder, James M, Jr, 2000. " Valence Politics and Equilibrium in Spatial Election Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 103(3-4), pages 327-36, June.
  6. Schofield, Norman, 1978. "Instability of Simple Dynamic Games," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 575-94, October.
  7. Norman Schofield, 2006. "Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 183-203, December.
  8. Norman Schofield & Gary Miller & Andrew Martin, 2003. "Critical Elections and Political Realignments in the USA: 1860-2000," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 51(2), pages 217-240, 06.
  9. Norman Schofield, 2007. "Political equilibria with electoral uncertainty," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 461-490, April.
  10. McKelvey, Richard D., 1976. "Intransitivities in multidimensional voting models and some implications for agenda control," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 472-482, June.
  11. Guido Cataife & Norman Schofield, 2007. "Electoral Oscillations in Argentina.," ICER Working Papers 34-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  12. McKelvey, Richard D. & Schofield, Norman, 1986. "Structural instability of the core," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 179-198, June.
  13. Schofield, Norman, 1983. "Generic Instability of Majority Rule," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 695-705, October.
  14. Adams, James, 1999. " Policy Divergence in Multicandidate Probabilistic Spatial Voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 100(1-2), pages 103-22, July.
  15. Schofield, Norman & Cataife, Guido, 2007. "A model of political competition with activists applied to the elections of 1989 and 1995 in Argentina," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 213-231, May.
  16. Norman Schofield, 2005. "The intellectual contribution of Condorcet to the founding of the US Republic 1785–1800," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 303-318, December.
  17. McKelvey, Richard D. & Schofield, Norman., 1985. "Generalized Symmetry Conditions at a Core Point," Working Papers 552, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  18. Norman Schofield, 2007. "The Mean Voter Theorem: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Convergent Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 965-980.
  19. Norman Schofield, 2013. "The “probability of a fit choice”," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 129-150, June.
  20. Norman Schofield & Micah Levinson, 2007. "Modelling Authoritarian Regimes," ICER Working Papers 32-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  21. Banks, Jeffrey S. & Duggan, John, 1999. "A Bargaining Model of Collective Choice," Working Papers 1053, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  22. McKelvey, Richard D, 1979. "General Conditions for Global Intransitivities in Formal Voting Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1085-1112, September.
  23. Banks, Jeffrey S. & Duggan, John & Le Breton, Michel, 2002. "Bounds for Mixed Strategy Equilibria and the Spatial Model of Elections," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 88-105, March.
  24. Adams, James, 1999. " Multiparty Spatial Competition with Probabilistic Voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 259-74, June.
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