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Modelling Politics

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Author Info
Norman Schofield ()

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Abstract

Formal models of elections have emphasized the convergence of party leaders towards the center of the electoral distribution. This paper discusses various political episodes in British and US history to suggest that political divergence is generic. This leads to the inference that political choice involves electoral judgment as well as preference. The stochastic electoral model is extended to incorporate the basis of judgment, namely valence. The model suggests that when the electoral system is based on proportional electoral methods, then there will be numerous parties with very di¤erent valences, adopting very divergent positions. Under plurality rule, on the other hand, the role of activists appears to restrict the number of parties to two, and to cause a slow political rotation in the policy space.

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Paper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 33-2007.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:33-2007

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  1. McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(04), pages 803-832, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Adams, James, 1999. " Multiparty Spatial Competition with Probabilistic Voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 259-74, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guido Cataife & Norman Schofield, 2007. "Electoral Oscillations in Argentina.," ICER Working Papers 34-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. McKelvey, Richard D. & Schofield, Norman, 1986. "Structural instability of the core," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 179-198, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Norman Schofield, 2007. "The Mean Voter Theorem: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Convergent Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(3), pages 965-980, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schofield, Norman, 1983. "Generic Instability of Majority Rule," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 695-705, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McKelvey, Richard D., 1976. "Intransitivities in multidimensional voting models and some implications for agenda control," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 472-482, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schofield, Norman, 1978. "Instability of Simple Dynamic Games," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 575-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Norman Schofield, 2005. "The intellectual contribution of Condorcet to the founding of the US Republic 1785–1800," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 303-318, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Norman Schofield & Micah Levinson, 2007. "Modelling Authoritarian Regimes," ICER Working Papers 32-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jeffrey S. Banks & John Duggan & Michel LeBreton, . "Bounds for Mixed Strategy Equilibria and the Spatial Model of Elections," Wallis Working Papers WP14, University of Rochester - Wallis Institute of Political Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Norman Schofield, 2007. "Political equilibria with electoral uncertainty," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 461-490, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ansolabehere, Stephen & Snyder, James M, Jr, 2000. " Valence Politics and Equilibrium in Spatial Election Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 103(3-4), pages 327-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Norman Schofield & Gary Miller & Andrew Martin, 2003. "Critical Elections and Political Realignments in the USA: 1860-2000," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 51(2), pages 217-240, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. North, Douglass C, 1994. "Economic Performance through Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 359-68, June.
  17. Aragones, Enriqueta & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2002. "Mixed Equilibrium in a Downsian Model with a Favored Candidate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 131-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Schofield, Norman & Cataife, Guido, 2007. "A model of political competition with activists applied to the elections of 1989 and 1995 in Argentina," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 213-231, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. McKelvey, Richard D & Schofield, Norman, 1987. "Generalized Symmetry Conditions at a Core Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 923-33, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Adams, James, 1999. " Policy Divergence in Multicandidate Probabilistic Spatial Voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 100(1-2), pages 103-22, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Norman Schofield, 2006. "Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 183-203, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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