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Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

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Author Info
Jerome Dumortier ()
Dermot J. Hayes () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Miguel Carriquiry () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Fengxia Dong () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Xiaodong Du () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Amani Elobeid () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Jacinto F. Fabiosa () (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI))
Simla Tokgoz

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Abstract

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model assumptions to elucidate the differences. We find that the payback period of corn ethanol's carbon debt is sensitive to assumptions concerning land conversion and yield growth and can range from 31 to 180 years.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 09-wp493.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:09-wp493

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Related research
Keywords: biofuel; crop yield; greenhouse gas emissions; indirect land-use change.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward), 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "Towards an Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM)," Staff General Research Papers 13063, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
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