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Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?

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  • John Bradley

    ()
    (EMDS - Economic Modelling and Development Strategies)

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    ()
    (GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen)

Abstract

The challenge of evaluating the impacts of cohesion policy lies in the complexity of the public policy instruments being used in terms of individual projects, wider measures, operational programmes and the entire investment package taken as a whole. The goal of cohesion policy – to promote accelerated growth and development in lagging EU member states and regions, i.e. development at the aggregate macroeconomic level – is ambitious and theevaluation of its likely impacts draws on economic and other research that is still at an early stage of evolution. The context within which cohesion policy is designed, implemented and evaluated is also complex and this should serve as a warning against simplistic evaluations and premature judgements. In the course of cohesion policy impact evaluation there are really only two crucial decisions to be taken. First, do you need to construct an explicit policy counterfactual? Second, if the answer is “yes”, how does one define thecounterfactual? If one wishes to identify the specific contribution of a policy action, it would be difficult to answer other than “yes” to the first question. But there are a range of possible answers to the second question.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HERMIN in its series HERMIN Economic Papers with number 2-2012.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hrm:wpaper:2-2012

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  1. Ratto M. & Roeger W. & in’t Veld J. & Girardi R., 2005. "An estimated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Macroeconomics 0503002, EconWPA.
  2. John Bradley & Timo Mitze & Edgar Morgenroth & Gerhard Untiedt, 2006. "How can we know if EU cohesion policy is successful? Integrating micro and macro approaches to the evaluation of Structural Funds," Working Papers 1-2006, GEFRA - Gesellschaft fuer Finanz- und Regionalanalysen.
  3. Pessoa, Argentino, 2010. "R&D and economic growth: How strong is the link?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 152-154, May.
  4. Bradley, John & Fanning, Connell & Prendergast, Canice & Wynne, Mark, 1985. "Medium-Term Analysis of Fiscal Policy in Ireland: A Macroeconometric Study of the Period 1967-1980," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS122, July.
  5. Angel de la Fuente, 2010. "Infrastructures and Productivity: an Updated Survey," Working Papers 475, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1993. "Does public capital affect private sector performance? : An analysis of the Spanish case, 1964-1988," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 179-185, July.
  7. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
  8. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12.

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