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Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12

Author

Listed:
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • Duffy, David
  • Timoney, Kevin
  • Znuderl, Nusa

Abstract

The experience of the last five years has been truly exceptional, involving the worst economic crisis in Ireland since the Second World War. The legacy effects of this crisis include a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of the state as well as an exceptionally high level of unemployment. The purpose of this Medium-Term Review is, first, to explore how the Irish economy works; second, to set out a range of possible future scenarios for the economy and third to use these scenarios to consider how domestic policy might improve the possible outcomes. Because of the uncertainty about the future, we consider three possible scenarios or paths for the economy over the rest of the decade. It will be some time before we know which of these scenarios is most likely to be correct and policy needs to take account of this uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:forcas:mtr:v:12
    Note: Publisher: ESRI
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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/MTR12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28, June.
    2. Conefrey, Thomas & Fitz Gerald, John D., 2011. "The macro-economic impact of changing the rate of corporation tax," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 991-999, May.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Fiscal Policy in Good Times and in Bad: Its Impact During Different Stages of the Economic Cycle," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Mulholland, E. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2017. "From technology pathways to policy roadmaps to enabling measures – A multi-model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1030-1041.
    3. Lawless, Martina & O'Toole, Conor & Lambert, Derek, 2014. "Financing SMEs in Recovery: Evidence for Irish Policy Options," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT276, June.
    4. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Mc Inerney, Niall, 2014. "The Role of Credit in the Housing Market," Papers WP495, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2014. "Credit Requirements for Irish Firms in the Economic Recovery," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Lawless, Martina & McCann, Fergal & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "The importance of banks in SME financing: Ireland in a European context," Economic Letters 05/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Gary Tobin & Keith Walsh, 2013. "What Makes a Country a Tax Haven? An Assessment of International Standards Shows Why Ireland Is Not a Tax Haven," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 401-424.
    8. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS70, June.
    9. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Fahey, Tony & Russell, Helen, 2001. "Family Formation in Ireland Trends, Data Needs and Implications: Report to Family Affairs Unit, Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS43, June.
    11. McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Current State of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Brian O'Connell & Conor O'Toole, 2015. "Do Credit Constraints Affect SME Investment and Employment?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 51-86.

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