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Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12

Contents:

Author Info

  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • Duffy, David
  • Timoney, Kevin
  • Znuderl, Nusa

Abstract

The experience of the last five years has been truly exceptional, involving the worst economic crisis in Ireland since the Second World War. The legacy effects of this crisis include a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of the state as well as an exceptionally high level of unemployment. The purpose of this Medium-Term Review is, first, to explore how the Irish economy works; second, to set out a range of possible future scenarios for the economy and third to use these scenarios to consider how domestic policy might improve the possible outcomes. Because of the uncertainty about the future, we consider three possible scenarios or paths for the economy over the rest of the decade. It will be some time before we know which of these scenarios is most likely to be correct and policy needs to take account of this uncertainty.

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File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/MTR12.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Forecasting Report with number MTR12 and published in 2013.

ISBN: 97807070035
Handle: RePEc:esr:forcas:mtr:v:12

Note: Publisher: ESRI
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Postal: Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2
Phone: (353-1) 863 2000
Fax: (353-1) 863 2100
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Web page: http://www.esri.ie
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Related research

Keywords: mtr/Ireland/unemployment/scenarios/Policy/uncertainty;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
  2. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers RB2011/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. FitzGerald, John, 2011. "Restoring Credibility in Policy Making in Ireland," Papers WP415, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Callan,Tim & Keane,Claire & Savage,Michael & Walsh,John R., 2012. "Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Sector Pay Policies: 2009-2012," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(4-Winter ).
  5. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
  6. Bradley, John & Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 1993. "Modelling supply in an open economy using a restricted cost function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 11-21, January.
  7. Santiago Carbó-Valverde & Francisco Rodríguez-Fernández & Gregory F. Udell, 2009. "Bank Market Power and SME Financing Constraints," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 309-340.
  8. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?," HERMIN Economic Papers 2-2012, HERMIN.
  9. repec:esr:chaptr:jacb201351 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Mark R. Stone & E. P. Davis, 2004. "Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 04/124, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Callan, Tim & Nolan, Brian & Keane, Claire & Savage, Michael & Walsh, John R., 2013. "Crisis, Response and Distributional Impact: The Case of Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 7481, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007, September.
  13. Thomas Conefrey & John FitzGerald & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Ireland," Papers WP251, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  14. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  15. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272.
  16. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  17. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Savage, Michael & Walsh, John R., 2013. "Taxes on Income: Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Papers BP2014/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  18. repec:sae:niesru:v:211:y:2010:i:1:p:r27-r44 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  20. FitzGerald, John, 2013. "The Effect of Re-domiciled Plcs on Irish Output Measures and the Balance of Payments," Research Notes RN2013/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  21. Duffy, David & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2013. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market: Estimates Using Loan Level Data," Papers WP463, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  22. Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus, 2012. "Explaining Changes in Earnings and Labour Costs During the Recession," Papers EC9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  23. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28, September.
  24. Barrell, Ray & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy Reference," Papers RB2011/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  25. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fie & John Fitz Gerald & Ali Orazgani & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages R41-R52, April.
  26. Callan, Tim & Brick, Aoife & Durkan, Joe & Keane, Claire & Lane, Marguerita & Miles, David & Nolan, Anne & Nolan, Brian & O'Leary, Jim & Walsh, John R., 2010. "Budget Perspectives 2011," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS18, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  2. Lawless, Martina & McCann, Fergal & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "The importance of banks in SME financing: Ireland in a European context," Economic Letters 05/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.

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