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The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy

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  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide
  • Znuderl, Nusa

Abstract

The HERMES macroeconomic model has been used extensively for over 25 years to carry out medium-term forecasting and scenario analysis of the Irish economy. Most recently the model has been used to generate the scenarios underpinning the 2013 edition of the ESRI's Medium-Term Review. In the long period over which the model has been used for policy analysis, the Irish economy has undergone substantial change and new approaches to modelling important economic relationships have been developed. This paper outlines the structure and behaviour of the most recent version of the HERMES model (HERMES-13). We describe the key mechanisms and the modelling innovations which have been introduced to deal with major changes in the economy. As the model draws on a range of research on the Irish economy, we describe how this work has been incorporated into the model to better capture key economic relationships. Finally, we examine the results of a series of shocks to key variables carried out using the model. This provides a benchmark against which to evaluate the long-run properties of the model as well as illustrating how the model can shed light on the key transmission channels in the economy. This paper, and the accompanying detailed model listing and estimation output, provides a basic reference manual that practitioners and interested parties can use to interpret model output and, it is hoped, make suggestions for further model development and improvement.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP460.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp460

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Keywords: modelling/Policy/scenarios;

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References

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  1. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
  2. Di Cosmo, Valeri & Hyland, Marie, 2012. "The ESRI Energy Model," Papers WP424, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. O'Malley, Eoin & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2006. "New drivers of Growth? Sectoral contributions to the Irish Economy," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2006(2-Summer), pages 36-62.
  4. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
  5. John Bradley & Gerhard Untiedt, 2012. "Assessing the impact of EU Cohesion Policy: What can economic models tell us?," HERMIN Economic Papers 2-2012, HERMIN.
  6. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2009. "Managing Housing Bubbles in Regional Economies under EMU: Ireland and Spain," Papers WP315, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. John Fitz Gerald, 2001. "Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1353-1371, November.
  8. John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  9. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007.
  10. Walsh, Brendan M., 1968. "Some Irish Population Problems Reconsidered," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS42.
  11. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272.
  12. Hennessy, Hugh & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The HERMES model of the Irish Energy Sector," Papers WP396, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers RB2011/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  14. Bradley, John & Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 1993. "Modelling supply in an open economy using a restricted cost function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 11-21, January.
  15. John FitzGerald & Mary Keeney & Sue Scott, 2009. "Assessing vulnerability of selected sectors under environmental tax reform: the issue of pricing power," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 413-433.
  16. Doris, Aedin, 2001. "The Changing Responsiveness of Labour Supply during the 1990s," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2001(4-Decembe), pages 1-14.
  17. repec:sae:niesru:v:211:y:2010:i:1:p:r27-r44 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, March.

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