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Qualitative Survey Responses and Production over the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Lindström, Tomas (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Abstract

An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models based on business survey data can provide more accurate one-quarter-ahead forecasts of output growth than naive alternatives. Another finding is that when BTS variables concerning ex post (ex ante) output growth are included in the empirical specifications, then no other ex post (ex ante) business survey variables seems to include any additional information about output growth.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 116.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0116

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Business cycles; Economic indicators; Manufacturing; Survey data; Time-series models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  3. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bechtel, Gordon G., 1981. "Measuring subjective social indicators," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-181, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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