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Qualitative Survey Responses and Production over the Business Cycle

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  • Lindström, Tomas

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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    Abstract

    An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models based on business survey data can provide more accurate one-quarter-ahead forecasts of output growth than naive alternatives. Another finding is that when BTS variables concerning ex post (ex ante) output growth are included in the empirical specifications, then no other ex post (ex ante) business survey variables seems to include any additional information about output growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 116.

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    Length: 29 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0116

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    Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
    Fax: 08-21 05 31
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    Related research

    Keywords: Business cycles; Economic indicators; Manufacturing; Survey data; Time-series models;

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    References

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    1. Bechtel, Gordon G., 1981. "Measuring subjective social indicators," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-181, September.
    2. Nerlove, Marc, 1983. "Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1251-79, September.
    3. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
    4. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
    6. Jonung, Lars, 1986. "Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 315-325, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "On The Predictive Content Of Production Surveys: A Pan-European Study," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-017-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    2. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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