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A Note of Caution on the Relation between Money Growth and Inflation

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Abstract

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect that shocks to money growth has on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before making a comeback after 2020. This instability implies that caution should be exercised when relating monetary aggregates to inflation.

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  • Berger, Helge & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "A Note of Caution on the Relation between Money Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2023:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2023_009
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    1. Mervyn King, 2022. "Monetary policy in a world of radical uncertainty," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 2-12, February.
    2. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(3), pages 531-550, September.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    5. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    6. repec:bre:wpaper:45602 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    8. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Model selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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