Outcomes of a Swedish Kilometre Tax. An analysis of Economic Effects and Effects on NOx Emissions
AbstractBy using an applied general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy, this paper examines how an in-troduction of a kilometre tax will affect economic growth (GDP), industry structure and emission levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). According to our findings, the GDP will decrease by 0.1-0.3 per cent and NOx emissions by 0.4-0.8 per cent (assuming fixed emissions coefficients) during the 2006-2020 period. Thus, we find that economic growth and NOx emissions decouple due to an introduction of a kilometre tax. The projected reductions of NOx emissions are, however, minor relative to the Swedish objective for 2010. Road transports will overall be substituted by sea and rail transports and industry structure will change in favour of industries less dependent on heavy road transports. The emissions reductions will, however, be substantively larger if the kilometre tax also ends up inducing technological development able to expedite the adoption of cleaner vehicles. Consequently, this would reinforce the decoupling effect. Furthermore, we compare our findings with the results of others, who used partial equilibrium or bottom-up approaches to study the effects of a Swedish kilometre tax. The effects on production are more signifi-cant in the applied general equilibrium framework, but structural changes point in the same direction for all the studies compared.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 103.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
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static general equilibrium model; EMEC; partial equilibrium model; bottom-up models; kilometre tax; transport policy; environmental policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-01-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2008-01-26 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2008-01-26 (Environmental Economics)
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