The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU. Is it really 12 months?
AbstractThe standard way today to obtain measures of inflationary expectations is to use questionnaires to ask a representative group of respondents about their beliefs of the future rate of inflation during the coming 12 months. This type of data on inflationary expectations as well as on inflationary perceptions has been collected in a unified way on an EU-wide basis for several years. By now, probably the largest database on inflationary expectations has been built up in this way. We use this database to explore the forecasting horizons implicitly used by the respondents to questions about the expected rate of inflation during the coming 12 months. The analysis covers all EU member states that have relevant data. We examine the forecast errors, the mean error and the RMSEs, to study if the forecast horizon is truly 12 months as implied by the questionnaires. Our working hypothesis is that the forecast error has a U-shaped pattern, reaching its lowest value on the 12-month horizon. We also study the "backcast" error for inflationary perceptions in a similar way. Our exploratory study reveals large differences across countries. For most countries, we get the expected U-shaped outcome for the forecast errors. The horizon implicitly used by respondents when answering the questions is not related to the explicit time horizon of the questionnaire. On average respondents use the same horizon when answering both questions, e.g. when respondents use a 12-month forecast horizon answering to the question on future inflation, they use the same forward looking horizon when answering to the question on past inflation. We suggest possible explanations for the differences observed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011:5.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 26 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
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Inflationary expectations; inflationary perceptions; forecasting error; forecasting horizon; EU; euro;
Other versions of this item:
- Lars Jonung & Staffan Linden, 2010. "The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU – Is it really 12 months?," European Economy - Economic Papers 435, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-02-05 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-02-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2011-02-05 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-68, December.
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