Default Risk, Systematic Risk and Thai Firms Before, During and After the Asian Crisis
AbstractThis paper applies the Merton (1974) default probability model to the firms in the SET-50 index at the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). It also examines the rela- tionship between a firm's default probability and firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-market ratio, and whether default risk is systematic or not. We believe this to be the first paper dealing with these issues using data from an emerging country. The study also differs from other studies by dealing with how the default risk of firms in different sec- tors of the economy changes during a severe crisis. Overall, we find a significant increase in market based default probabilities around the crisis and a fairly slow return to pre-crisis levels. The first sector to suffer a deterioration in creditworthiness was the sector of finance and securities firms and the worst effected sector at the peak of the Asian crisis was the building materials sector. There are further some indications of the most distressed firms being on average somewhat smaller than the least distressed, but only during the crisis. We do not find significant evidence of the book-to-market ratio being related to the default risk in this particular market, though. Finally, if default risk is systematic, one would expect that default risk is rewarded by higher returns. However, in this sample the level of default risk of a firm does not seem to be able to explain the firm's subsequent realized returns at different horizons. We therefore reject the hypothesis that default risk is systematic.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2005:5.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Research in International Business and Finance, 2005, pages 95-110.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Thailand; stock market; default probabilities;
Other versions of this item:
- Bystrom, Hans & Worasinchai, Lugkana & Chongsithipol, Srisuda, 2005. "Default risk, systematic risk and Thai firms before, during and after the Asian crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110, March.
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans Bystr?m, 2003.
"The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons,"
Research Paper Series
93, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
- Byström, Hans, 2003. "The Market’s View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Working Papers 2003:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
- Ilia D. Dichev, 1998. "Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1131-1147, 06.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-84, September.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011.
"Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
- Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro & A. Luduvice, 2011. "Modeling Default Probabilities: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 232, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Jacques, Sébastien & Lai, Van Son & Soumaré, Issouf, 2011. "Synthetizing a debt guarantee: Super-replication versus utility approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 27-40, January.
- Marcelo Yoshio Takami & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2006. "Avaliação Do Risco Sistêmico Do Setor Bancário Brasileiro," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 96, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
- Marjit, Sugata & Das, Pranab Kumar & Bardhan, Samaresh, 2007. "A portfolio based theory of excessive foreign borrowing and capital control in a small open economy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 175-187, June.
- Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
- Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.