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On the Role of Opinion Polls in Political Competition

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Author Info
Tangerås, Thomas () (The Research Institute of Industrial Economics, IUI)

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of strategic positioning during an election campaign in which candidates use results from opinion polls to extract information about voter preferences. It is shown that the distance between policy announcements decreases over the course of the campaign: candidates announce initial policies at either extreme of the political spectrum and commit to moderate final policies. An "underdog" effect arises: the difference in candidate popularity decreases as the campaign evolves. A puplic opinion poll constitutes a Pareto improvement if final policies are expected to become more moderate after the introduction of the poll.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 655.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 19 Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0655

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Related research
Keywords: Opinion Polls; Election Campaigns; Underdog Effect; Welfare;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Osborne, Martin J & Slivinski, Al, 1996. "A Model of Political Competition with Citizen-Candidates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 65-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Harrington, Joseph Jr., 1992. "The role of party reputation in the formation of policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 107-121, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Banks, Jeffrey S., 1990. "A model of electoral competition with incomplete information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 309-325, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Cukierman, Alex, 1991. " Asymmetric Information and the Electoral Momentum of Public Opinion Polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 181-213, May.
  5. Harrington Jr. , Joseph E., 1993. "The Impact of Reelection Pressures on the Fulfillment of Campaign Promises," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 71-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cukierman, A. & Spiegel, Y., 1998. "When do Representative and Direct Democracies Lead to Similar Policy Choices?," Papers 21-98, Tel Aviv.
  7. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1994. " Campaign Advertising and Political Ambiguity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 281-303, June.
  8. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
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