Forecasting global growth by age structure projections
AbstractDemographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2004:5.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2
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Global growth; age structure;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
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