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Forecasting global growth by age structure projections

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Author Info
Malmberg, Bo () (Institute for Futures Studies)
Lindh, Thomas () (Institute for Futures Studies)

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Abstract

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2004:5.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_005

Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Global growth; age structure;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kelley, Allen C. & Robert M. Schmidt, 1995. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Working Papers 95-01, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Duvander, Ann-Zofie & Ferrarini, Tommy & Thalberg, Sara, 2005. "Swedish parental leave and gender equality - Achievements and reform challenges in a European perspective," Arbetsrapport 2005:11, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bäckman, Olof, 2005. "Welfare States, Social Structure and the Dynamics of Poverty Rates. A comparative study of 16 countries, 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:7, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2005. "The Employers in the Swedish Model The Importance of Labour Market Competition and Organisation," Arbetsrapport 2005:2, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2004. "Welfare Enhancing Marginal Tax Rates: The Case of Publicly Provided Day Care," Arbetsrapport 2004:6, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hong, Ying & Corman, Diana, 2005. "Women´s Return to Work after First Birth in Sweden during 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:19, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ström, Sara, 2005. "Childbearing and psycho-social work life conditions in Sweden 1991-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:13, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
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