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Stocks Hedge Against Inflation In The Long Run: Evidence From A Coin- Tegration Analysis For Denmark

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  • Olesen, Jan Overgaard

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

We suggest an alternative approach to testing whether stocks provide a hedge against inflation in the long run. Based on a simple structural model, we test the hedge hypothesis in terms of the long-run linkage between stock prices and the general price level, as estimated by cointegration analysis. Using data for the Danish stock market over the post-World War II-period, results give strong support for the hedge property, defined in the narrow sense of a perfect hedge. This contrasts with the weak support found in the literature and also represents stronger support than produced by standard methods. We argue that our approach has the advantage of allowing for a clear distinction between short- and long-run dynamics of stock prices which adjust slowly to long-run equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Olesen, Jan Overgaard, 2000. "Stocks Hedge Against Inflation In The Long Run: Evidence From A Coin- Tegration Analysis For Denmark," Working Papers 06-2000, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2000_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    5. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    6. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    7. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    9. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    10. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2016. "Stocks as Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1280-1295, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stocks; Hedge; Inflation; Denmark; Stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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