ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia
AbstractThis paper conducts an empirical investigation into the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia by employing the ARDL bounds tests. There exists a stock return–inflation long run relationship, and the long run parameters are non-linear functions of those of the conditional error correction model. The OLS estimates of the latter model constitute the long run parameter estimates and their standard errors are estimated by delta methods. The long run model estimates so constructed can be biassed and inconsistent, and the delta method is derived assuming asymptotic normality, which does not hold in this investigation. In this paper, to overcome these limitations of the traditional methods, we employ the bias-corrected bootstrap method. As a consequence, the robust and reliable statistical inference can be made on the long run return–inflation relationship. The empirical results show that the expected inflation had no significant effect on real stock returns, while the observed inflation had a significant and negative effect. Furthermore, the data generating process of the returns–inflation relationship was not affected by the change in monetary policy regime in the early 1990s. These findings imply that Australian stocks have been very effective instruments for hedging against expected inflation. Because of the resilience of Australian economy to the current global financial and economic crisis, this finding has implications for long term domestic and foreign investors in Australia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
ARDL bounds tests; Long run relationship; Bias-corrected bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Macfarlane, I J, 1999. "Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quarter of the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 213-24, September.
- Madsen, Jakob B., 2005. "The Fisher hypothesis and the interaction between share returns, inflation and supply shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 103-120, February.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Crosby, M., 1998.
"Stock Returns and Inflation,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
644, The University of Melbourne.
- Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
- Paul Alagidede, 2009. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1403-1408.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-55, December.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000.
"Recent developments in bootstrapping time series,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
- Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2011. "A bootstrap algorithm for testing cointegration rank in VAR models in the presence of stationary variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 152-162.
- Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Geraldine Ryan, 2006. "Irish stock returns and inflation: a long span perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 699-706.
- Kim, Jae H, 2001. "Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 117-28, January.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 2003. " Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 207-31, November.
- Solnik, Bruno, 1983. " The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March.
- Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
- Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2001. "Stock Prices and Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, Winter.
- Shu-Chin Lin, 2009. "Inflation And Real Stock Returns Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 783-795, October.
- Kaul, Gautam & Seyhun, H Nejat, 1990. " Relative Price Variability, Real Shocks, and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 479-96, June.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
- Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "Stock returns, inflation and interest rates in the United Kingdom," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 687-699.
- Ka-Fu Wong & Hai-Jun Wu, 2003. "Testing Fisher hypothesis in long horizons for G7 and eight Asian countries.1," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 917-923.
- Atkins, Frank J. & Coe, Patrick J., 2002. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 255-266, June.
- Osamah M. Al-Khazali & Chong Soo Pyun, 2004. "Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 123-140, 03.
- Rapach, David E., 2002. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, September.
- Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19.
- Kaul, Gautam, 1990. "Monetary Regimes and the Relation between Stock Returns and Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 307-321, September.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.