Has the accuracy of energy demand projections in the OECD countries improved since the 1970s?
AbstractSince the 1970s almost all OECD countries have published projections or forecasts of future energy consumption. By now, three decades later, the actual values of energy consumption are available for the same number of countries and thus a considerable amount of empirical data is available concerning formal hypothesis testing, e.g. whether there have been improvements in the forecasting accuracy during this period. Using data for sixteen OECD countries the empirical evidence weakly favors the hypothesis that these countries have made some advances in forecasting accuracy concerning projections at the aggregate level of energy consumption and to a lesser degree at sectoral levels. Also, in accordance with a priori expectations, the forecasting failure is increasing with the length of the forecasting horizon.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 01-5.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2001
Date of revision:
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Energy demand projections; OECD countries; Forecasting accuracy;
Other versions of this item:
- Bentzen, J. & Linderoth, H., 2001. "Has the accuracy of energy demand projections in the OECD countries improved since the 1970s?," Papers 01-5, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shlyakhter, Alexander I. & Kammen, Daniel M. & Broido, Claire L. & Wilson, Richard, 1994. "Quantifying the credibility of energy projections from trends in past data : The US energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-130, February.
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