Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model
AbstractWe investigate convergence in European price level, unit labor cost, income, and productivity data over the period of 1960-2006 using the non-linear time-varying coefficients factor model proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). This approach is extremely flexible on order to model a large number of transition paths to convergence. We find regional clusters in consumer price level data. GDP deflator data and unit labor cost data are far less clustered than CPI data. Income per capita data indicate the existence of three convergence clubs without strong regional linkages; Italy and Germany are not converging to any of those clubs. Total factor productivity data indicate the existence of a small club including fast-growing countries and a club consisting of all other countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 200802.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Price level; Income; Productivity; Convergence; Factor Model; European Monetary Union;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-06-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2008-06-21 (European Economics)
- NEP-EFF-2008-06-21 (Efficiency & Productivity)
- NEP-GEO-2008-06-21 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-MAC-2008-06-21 (Macroeconomics)
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