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Do Prices in the EMU Converge (Non-linearly)?

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (Department for Socioeconomics, Department for Economics, University of Hamburg)

  • Sarah Lein

    (Swiss National Bank (SNB))

  • Sebastian Weber

    (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin)

Abstract

This paper examines the current state of price convergence amongst the eleven initial EMU member states. Special attention is given to possible changes in the convergence process during the euro cash changeover. We apply the sigma-convergence approach using both panel estimates of changes in the deterministic time trend of a coefficient of variation and stochastic kernel-density estimates. We find that convergence took place before 2000, slowed down substantially between 2000 and 2003, and resurfaced after 2003. This points to a non-linear convergence path. We show that stronger convergence is associated with periods of positive and less-dispersed output gaps across member states. There are no big differences between the results for tradables and non-tradables, indicating that Balassa-Samuelson effects are relatively weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Sarah Lein & Sebastian Weber, 2009. "Do Prices in the EMU Converge (Non-linearly)?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200904, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200904
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_4_2009.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    3. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
    2. Sophie-Charlotte Meyer & Ronald Schettkat, 2013. "Price Convergence in Euroland. Evidence from micro data without noise," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp13005, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prices; European Monetary Union; Sigma-convergence; Kernel-density Estimation; Balassa-Samuelson Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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