Do Prices in the EMU Converge (Non-linearly)?
AbstractThis paper examines the current state of price convergence amongst the eleven initial EMU member states. Special attention is given to possible changes in the convergence process during the euro cash changeover. We apply the sigma-convergence approach using both panel estimates of changes in the deterministic time trend of a coefficient of variation and stochastic kernel-density estimates. We find that convergence took place before 2000, slowed down substantially between 2000 and 2003, and resurfaced after 2003. This points to a non-linear convergence path. We show that stronger convergence is associated with periods of positive and less-dispersed output gaps across member states. There are no big differences between the results for tradables and non-tradables, indicating that Balassa-Samuelson effects are relatively weak.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 200904.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Prices; European Monetary Union; Sigma-convergence; Kernel-density Estimation; Balassa-Samuelson Effect;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-07-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2009-07-28 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2009-07-28 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
- Sophie-Charlotte Meyer & Ronald Schettkat, 2013. "Price Convergence in Euroland. Evidence from micro data without noise," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp13005, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
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