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A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development

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Author Info

  • Jana Asher

    ()
    (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), StatAid)

  • Beth Osborne Daponte

    ()
    (Human Development Research Office (HDRO), Yale University)

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    Abstract

    This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.

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    File URL: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/papers/HDRP_2010_40.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in its series Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) with number HDRP-2010-40.

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    Length: 57 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2010
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published as background research for the 2010 Human Development Report.
    Handle: RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-40

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    Related research

    Keywords: human development index; conflict; hypothetical cohorts;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Wacziarg, Romain & Spolaore, Enrico, 2006. "The Diffusion of Development," Research Papers 1898r1, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    2. Olivier F. Morand, 2002. "Economic Growth, Longevity, and the Epidemiological Transition," Working papers 2002-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart and Emma Samman, . "Human Development: beyond the HDI," QEH Working Papers qehwps135, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    4. Leandro Conte & Giuseppe Della Torre & Michelangelo Vasta, 2007. "The Human Development Index in Historical Perspective: Italy from Political Unification to the Present Day," Department of Economics University of Siena 491, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    6. Felice Emanuele, 2005. "Il reddito delle regioni italiane nel 1938 e nel 1951. Una stima basata sul costo del lavoro," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 3-30.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj and Rossarin Osathanunkul & Rossarin Osathanunkul, 2013. "Regional multipliers of social accounting matrix and the effective eradication of poverty," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(4), pages 39 - 52, December.
    2. durongkaveroj, wannaphong & osathanunkul, rossarin, 2014. "การลดความยากจนและการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจในกลุ่มประเทศต่างๆ
      [Poverty Reduction and Economic Development
      ," MPRA Paper 54433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2014.
    3. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Development Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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