A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development
AbstractThis research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four ÒcohortsÓ of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when Ðrecalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in its series Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) with number HDRP-2010-40.
Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as background research for the 2010 Human Development Report.
human development index; conflict; hypothetical cohorts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
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