Leapfrogging, Growth Reversals and Welfare
AbstractWe show that leapfrogging and growth reversals entail sizeable welfare gains and losses, respectively, in an AK economy that cannot credibly commit to investment when borrowing from international financial markets. Small no-commitment delays originate a trade-off that has an ambiguous effect on welfare: they reduce the long-run consumption growth rate but increase the initial level of consumption that is optimally chosen. Essentially, the larger the delay, the tighter the borrowing constraint and the weaker the incentives to accumulate capital, so that smaller growth and larger initial consumption follow. We show under logarithmic utility and small delays that the short-run effect dominates the long-run effect and that welfare improves, provided that the economy has historically been growing fast enough, and numerical examples suggest that this benchmark result extends to CRRA utility. When relative risk aversion is larger than one, it follows that there exists a positive welfare-maximizing delay associated with slower growth relative to the no-delay case. We then apply our results to show that leapfrogging in consumption level typically imply large welfare gains. In contrast, growth reversals occur for large delays and lead to significant welfare losses. Finally, financial integration, as measured by the credit multiplier given the no-commitment delay, is welfare-improving only for economies that have historically been growing fast enough.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00576743.
Date of creation: 15 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00576743/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Growth Reversals; Leapfrogging; International Borrowing; Open Economies; Welfare;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2011-03-26 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FDG-2011-03-26 (Financial Development & Growth)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005.
"Systemic Crises and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1451, CESifo Group Munich.
- Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic crises and growth," Economics Working Papers 854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2004.
- Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Systemic Crises and Growth," Working Papers 190, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012.
"On the Timing and Optimality of Capital Controls: Public Expenditures, Debt Dynamics and Welfare,"
- Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2013. "On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 101-112, 03.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "On the Timing and Optimality of Capital Controls: Public Expenditures, Debt Dynamics and Welfare," Working Papers 12-15, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised May 2012.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 12.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "On the Timing and Optimality of Capital Controls. Public Expenditures, Debt Dynamics and Welfare," AMSE Working Papers 1212, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
- Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus, 2012.
"History’s a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-47, March.
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & PINTUS, Patrick A., . "History's a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2450, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration," AMSE Working Papers 1202, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 12 Feb 2012.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.