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A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for “avoided deforestation” (REDD)

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Author Info

  • Pascale Combes Motel

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Romain Pirard

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

Abstract

Climate change mitigation would benefit from Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The REDD mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues, which in turn is related to avoided deforestation (how many hectares of forests are saved). Although any prediction of deforestation rates (i.e. business-as-usual scenarios) is challenging, and any negotiated target is subject to political influence, these two ways have been prioritirized so far. In other words, proposals have focused on a baseline (or cap)-and-trade approach, which relevance is questionable because resulting financial compensations are subject to unfairness if estimations of avoided deforestation are not reliable. Rather than considering overall deforestation (predicted and observed), we argue that a REDD mechanism would gain from linking compensations to real efforts that developing countries implement for slowing deforestation rates. This would provide more efficient incentives to design and enforce suitable policies and measures. The methodology we present to measure these efforts (labeled Compensated Successful Efforts) is based on the rationale that overall deforestation is due partly to structural factors, and partly to domestic policies and measures. This typology differs from others presented in the literature such as proximate / underlying causes, or economic / institutional factors. Using an econometric model, our approach estimates efforts that are (i) independent of structural factors (economic development, population, initial forest area, agricultural export prices), (ii) estimated ex post at the end of the crediting period, and (iii) relative to other countries. In order to illustrate the methodology we apply the model to a panel of 48 countries (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and four periods between 1970 and 2005. We conclude on the feasibility to estimate avoided deforestation using the Compensated Successful Efforts approach. In addition to being conservative from an environmental perspective, this approach guarantees fairness by accounting for dramatic changes during the commitment period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00556933.

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Date of creation: 18 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556933

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Related research

Keywords: avoided deforestation; REDD; climate change; baseline scenario; Forest;

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References

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  1. Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont, 2008. "Deforestation and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 242-262, June.
  2. Maestad, Ottar, 2001. "Timber trade restrictions and tropical deforestation: a forest mining approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 111-132, April.
  3. Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2004. "Governance, economic policy, and the environmental Kuznets curve for natural tropical forests," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 367-382, July.
  4. Barrett, Christopher B. & Gibson, Clark C. & Hoffman, Barak & McCubbins, Mathew D., 2005. "The complex links between governance and biodiversity," Working Papers 14758, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  5. Edward B. Barbier, 2004. "Explaining Agricultural Land Expansion and Deforestation in Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1347-1353.
  6. Michael Dutschke, 2007. "CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 275-302, February.
  7. Farzin, Y. Hossein & Bond, Craig A., 2006. "Democracy and environmental quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 213-235, October.
  8. Culas, Richard J., 2007. "Deforestation and the environmental Kuznets curve: An institutional perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 429-437, March.
  9. Wunder, Sven, 2005. "Macroeconomic Change, Competitiveness and Timber Production: A Five-Country Comparison," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 65-86, January.
  10. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hamilton, Kirk & Pandey, Kiran D. & Wheeler, David, 2006. "Environment During growth: Accounting for governance and vulnerability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1597-1611, September.
  11. Scrieciu, S. Serban, 2007. "Can economic causes of tropical deforestation be identified at a global level?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 603-612, May.
  12. Mahapatr, Krushna & Kant, Shashi, 2005. "Tropical deforestation: a multinomial logistic model and some country-specific policy prescriptions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
  13. Miyamoto, Motoe, 2006. "Forest conversion to rubber around Sumatran villages in Indonesia: Comparing the impacts of road construction, transmigration projects and population," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, November.
  14. Giovanni Federico, 2005. "Introduction to Feeding the World: An Economic History of World Agriculture, 1800-2000
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    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  15. Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
  16. Sierra, Rodrigo, 2001. "The role of domestic timber markets in tropical deforestation and forest degradation in Ecuador: Implications for conservation planning and policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 327-340, February.
  17. Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2001. "Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1010, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline & Jean-Christophe Poudou & Sébastien Roussel, 2012. "North / South Contractual Design through the REDD+ Scheme," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12059, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  2. Helene Ollivier, 2012. "Growth, deforestation and the efficiency of the REDD mechanism," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00750718, HAL.
  3. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00747405 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Damette, Olivier & Delacote, Philippe, 2012. "On the economic factors of deforestation: What can we learn from quantile analysis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2427-2434.
  5. Damette, Olivier & Delacote, Philippe, 2011. "Unsustainable timber harvesting, deforestation and the role of certification," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(6), pages 1211-1219, April.
  6. Köthke, Margret & Leischner, Bettina & Elsasser, Peter, 2013. "Uniform global deforestation patterns — An empirical analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 23-37.
  7. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2014. "Deforestation and Seigniorage in Developing Countries: A Tradeoff?," Working Papers halshs-00939273, HAL.
  8. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Somlanare Romuald KINDA, 2014. "Do Environmental Policies Hurt Trade Performance?," Working Papers halshs-00939249, HAL.
  9. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2012. "Trade and Environmental Quality in African Countries: Do Institutions Matter?," ICER Working Papers 14-2012, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  10. Julien Wolfersberger & Serge Garcia & Philippe Delacote, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the cumulative nature of deforestation," Working Papers 1303, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  11. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
  12. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Alexandru Minea & P. Villieu, 2011. "Disinflation against the Environment? An application to the trade-off between seigniorage and deforestation," Working Papers halshs-00553134, HAL.
  13. Matthieu Boussichas & Michael Goujon, 2010. "A quantitative indicator of the immigration policy's restrictiveness," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1727-1736.
  14. Angelsen, Arild, 2013. "REDD+ as performance-based aid: General lessons and bilateral agreements of Norway," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  15. Pooja Singh & Othman Sulaiman & Rokiah Hashim & Leh Peng & Rajeev Singh, 2013. "Using biomass residues from oil palm industry as a raw material for pulp and paper industry: potential benefits and threat to the environment," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 367-383, April.

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