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Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

Author

Listed:
  • Benoît Chèze

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pascal Gastineau

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. "scenario of type I") recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," Working Papers hal-04141052, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141052
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141052
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-177.
    2. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    3. Olsthoorn, Xander, 2001. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950–2050," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 87-93.
    4. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    5. repec:cii:cepiei:2011-q2-3-126-127-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

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