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A Note on the Business Cycles Implications of Trade in Intermediate Goods

Author

Listed:
  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gunes Kamber

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.
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Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Eyquem & Gunes Kamber, 2014. "A Note on the Business Cycles Implications of Trade in Intermediate Goods," Post-Print halshs-00761459, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00761459
    DOI: 10.1017/S1365100512000892
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    2. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Miles Parker, 2014. "How much of what New Zealanders consume is imported? Estimates from input-output tables," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies," Working Paper 2014/04, Norges Bank.
    6. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    7. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. William D. Craighead, 2020. "Intermediate Goods and Exchange Rate Disconnect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129, February.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    10. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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