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Les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale sont-ils fortement exposés aux chocs sectoriels et géographiques vis-à-vis de la zone euro ?

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  • Jérôme Trotignon

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

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    Abstract

    La future adhésion des PECO à la zone euro met en avant le risque de choc asymétrique externe, dû à une trop forte dépendance sur un secteur ou un pays client. Nous construisons deux indicateurs - sectoriel et géographique - d'exposition aux chocs, à partir de la symétrie des structures d'exportation d'un futur membre avec l'UEM et de l'ouverture commerciale du futur membre. Cela nous permet d'établir un classement des PECO en fonction de la réalisation du critère de Kenen reformulé, puis transposé à la diversité géographique des exportations. Les résultats, comparés à ceux des deux pays de l'UEM les plus exposés aux chocs sectoriel et géographique (la Finlande et l'Irlande), témoignent d'un risque généralement prononcé. Un inventaire des couples pays/branche et pays/destination susceptibles d'être à l'origine de chocs à fort impact macroéconomique montre que la Bulgarie et la Slovaquie, et plus encore l'Estonie et la Lettonie, concentrent les risques majeurs. Le processus de convergence réelle de la Bulgarie et de la Lettonie avec l'eurozone ne semblant pas être amorcé, ces deux économies pourraient envisager de reporter leur participation à l'UEM ou de créer préalablement un fonds de stabilisation conjoncturel. Cette recommandation est contraire à la thèse de l'endogénéité des ZMO, mise en avant lorsque le commerce intrabranche s'intensifie. Mais la hausse de la part du commerce intrabranche entre un PECO et l'UEM ne correspond pas nécessairement à une moindre exposition aux chocs étudiés.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00161687.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Publication status: Published, Revue d'Etudes Comparatives Est-Ouest, 2005, 36, 2, 109-141
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00161687

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00161687/en/
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    Related research

    Keywords: choc asymétrique externe; critère de Kenen; exposition aux chocs; pays d'Europe centrale et orientale; symétrie des structures d'exportation; zone monétaire optimale;

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    1. Francoise Lemoine & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale dans la division du travail en Europe," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 80, pages 3-36.
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    13. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
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