IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03683517.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Bargain

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

  • Ulugbek Aminjonov

Abstract

Since March 2020, governments have recommended or enacted lockdown policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Yet, poorer segments of the population cannot afford to stay at home and must continue to work. In this paper, we test whether work-related mobility is effectively influenced by the local intensity of poverty. To do so, we exploit poverty data and Google mobility data for 242 regions of nine Latin American and African countries. We find that the drop in work-related mobility during the first lockdown period was indeed significantly lower in high-poverty regions compared to other regions. We also illustrate how higher poverty has induced a faster spread of the virus. The policy implication is that social protection measures in the form of food or cash trasfers must be complementary to physical distancing measures. Further research must evaluate how such transfers, when implemented, have attenuated the difference between poor and non-poor regions in terms of exposure to the virus.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Bargain & Ulugbek Aminjonov, 2021. "Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America," Post-Print hal-03683517, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03683517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03683517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03683517/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105422?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    2. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana & Ahamed, Mostak, 2021. "COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. François Gerard & Clément Imbert & Kate Orkin, 0. "Social protection response to the COVID-19 crisis: options for developing countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 281-296.
    4. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Ugo Gentilini & Mohamed Almenfi & Ian Orton & Pamela Dale, 2020. "Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33635, The World Bank Group.
    6. Janssens, Wendy & Pradhan, Menno & de Groot, Richard & Sidze, Estelle & Donfouet, Hermann Pythagore Pierre & Abajobir, Amanuel, 2021. "The short-term economic effects of COVID-19 on low-income households in rural Kenya: An analysis using weekly financial household data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2020. "A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout," IMF Working Papers 2020/214, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Durizzo, Kathrin & Asiedu, Edward & Van der Merwe, Antoinette & Van Niekerk, Attie & Günther, Isabel, 2021. "Managing the COVID-19 pandemic in poor urban neighborhoods: The case of Accra and Johannesburg," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Titan Alon & Minki Kim & David Lagakos, 2020. "How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-350, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. González-Bustamante, Bastián, 2021. "Evolution and early government responses to COVID-19 in South America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Bennett, Magdalena, 2021. "All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in chile," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Niembro, Andrés & Calá, Carla Daniela, 2020. "A first exploratory analysis of the regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3376, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    13. Kansiime, Monica K. & Tambo, Justice A. & Mugambi, Idah & Bundi, Mary & Kara, Augustine & Owuor, Charles, 2021. "COVID-19 implications on household income and food security in Kenya and Uganda: Findings from a rapid assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. François Gerard & Clément Imbert & Kate Orkin, 2020. "Social protection response to the COVID-19 crisis: options for developing countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 281-296.
    15. Magda Osman & Shola Radford & Yiling Lin & Natalie Gold & William Nelson & Ragnar Löfstedt, 2020. "Learning lessons: how to practice nudging around the world," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 11-19, January.
    16. Linden McBride & Austin Nichols, 2018. "Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 531-550.
    17. Carlitz, Ruth D. & Makhura, Moraka N., 2021. "Life under lockdown: Illustrating tradeoffs in South Africa’s response to COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Stephen Devereux & Christophe Béné & John Hoddinott, 2020. "Conceptualising COVID-19’s impacts on household food security," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 769-772, August.
    19. Kathleen Beegle & Aline Coudouel & Emma Monsalve, 2018. "Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa [Les filets sociaux en Afrique comment realiser pleinement leur potential?]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29789, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    3. Aminjonov, Ulugbek & Bargain, Olivier & Bernard, Tanguy, 2023. "Gimme shelter. Social distancing and income support in times of pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Wenjin Long & Junxia Zeng & Tongquan Sun, 2021. "Who Lost Most Wages and Household Income during the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Poor Rural China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 95-116, November.
    6. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Delphine Boutin & Laurène Petifour & Haris Megzari, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Working Papers hal-03623601, HAL.
    8. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Paula Barrios, 2022. "Subnational fiscal accounts under pressure: the effects of COVID-19 in a developing country," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 306, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Mwale, Martin Limbikani & Kamninga, Tony Mwenda, 2022. "Land rights and the impact of farm input subsidies on poverty convergence," MPRA Paper 112431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Manyong, Victor & Bokanga, Mpoko & Akonkwa Nyamuhirwa, Dieu-Merci & Bamba, Zoumana & Adeoti, Razack & Mwepu, Gregoire & Cole, Steven M. & Dontsop Nguezet, Paul Martin, 2022. "COVID-19 outbreak and rural household food security in the Western Democratic Republic of the Congo," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    11. Amarante, Verónica, 2022. "Fortalecimiento de los sistemas de protección social de la región: aprendizajes a partir de la pandemia de COVID-19," Documentos de Proyectos 47830, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Lucia Svabova & Eva Nahalkova Tesarova & Marek Durica & Lenka Strakova, 2021. "Evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the unemployment rate in Slovakia: counterfactual before-after comparison," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 261-284, June.
    13. Dessy,Sylvain Eloi & Gninafon,Horace Mahugnon Akim & Tiberti,Luca & Tiberti,Marco, 2021. "COVID-19 and Children’s School Resilience : Evidence from Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9736, The World Bank.
    14. Aubert, Cécile & Dang, Hai-Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2022. "The Unequal Impact of the COVID Pandemic: Theory and Evidence on Health and Economic Outcomes for Different Income Groups," IZA Discussion Papers 15396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Marco Fattore & Stefania M.L. Rimoldi, 2023. "Effects of the Covid Pandemic on the Economic Vulnerability of Italian Society," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 37-68, December.
    16. Delphine BOUTIN & Laurène PETIFOUR & Haris MEGZARI, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2022-05, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Bargain, Olivier & Aminjonov, Ulugbek, 2020. "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13297, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Paula Barrios, 2022. "Subnational fiscal accounts under pressure: the effects of COVID-19 in a developing country," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 20052, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    4. Olivier BARGAIN & Ulugbek AMINJONOV, 2020. "Poverty and COVID-19 in Developing Countries," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    5. Aminjonov, Ulugbek & Bargain, Olivier & Bernard, Tanguy, 2023. "Gimme shelter. Social distancing and income support in times of pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Krauss, Judith E. & Artur, Luis & Brockington, Dan & Castro, Eduardo & Fernando, Jone & Fisher, Janet & Kingman, Andrew & Moises, Hosia Mavoto & Mlambo, Ana & Nuvunga, Milagre & Pritchard, Rose & Ribe, 2022. "‘To prevent this disease, we have to stay at home, but if we stay at home, we die of hunger’ – Livelihoods, vulnerability and coping with Covid-19 in rural Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Ganchimeg Gombodorj & Károly Pető, 2022. "What Type of Households in Mongolia Are Most Hit by COVID-19?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Bassier, Ihsaan & Budlender, Joshua & Zizzamia, Rocco & Leibbrandt, Murray & Ranchhod, Vimal, 2021. "Locked down and locked out: Repurposing social assistance as emergency relief to informal workers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Kalle Hirvonen & Alan de Brauw & Gashaw T. Abate, 2021. "Food Consumption and Food Security during the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Addis Ababa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 772-789, May.
    10. Boglárka Anna Éliás & Attila Jámbor, 2021. "Food Security and COVID-19: A Systematic Review of the First-Year Experience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.
    11. M. A. Hannan & M. S. Abd Rahman & Ali Q. Al-Shetwi & R. A. Begum & Pin Jern Ker & M. Mansor & M. S. Mia & M. J. Hossain & Z. Y. Dong & T. M. I. Mahlia, 2022. "Impact Assessment of COVID-19 Severity on Environment, Economy and Society towards Affecting Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, November.
    12. Anubhab Gupta & Heng Zhu & Miki Khanh Doan & Aleksandr Michuda & Binoy Majumder, 2021. "Economic Impacts of the COVID−19 Lockdown in a Remittance‐Dependent Region," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 466-485, March.
    13. Anda David & Yoro Diallo & Björn Nilsson, 2023. "Informality and Inequality: The African Case," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 273-295.
    14. Guerrero-Amezaga, Maria Elena & Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Shimberg, Naomi & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2022. "Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Duy Duong, 2022. "Government responses, democracy, and COVID-19 containment: a cross-country study," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 98-106.
    16. Donatella Saccone, 2021. "Can the Covid19 pandemic affect the achievement of the ‘Zero Hunger’ goal? Some preliminary reflections," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1025-1038, September.
    17. Emily Aiken & Suzanne Bellue & Dean Karlan & Christopher R. Udry & Joshua Blumenstock, 2021. "Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data Can Improve the Targeting of Humanitarian Assistance," NBER Working Papers 29070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Abay, Kibrom A. & Yonzan, Nishant & Kurdi, Sikandra & Tafere, Kibrom, 2022. "Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic," IFPRI discussion papers 2142, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    20. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Poverty; Lockdown; Compliance; Work mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03683517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.