Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during theCOVID-19 Pandemic

Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficultas predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, includingnational accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of thepandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. This papercombines per capita gross domestic product growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency PhoneSurveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. It finds that the pandemicincreased poverty in Africa by 1.5–1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates andprojections. The paper also finds that countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence experienced the greatestincreases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, the paper assesses and synthesizes empiricalevidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis inAfrica. It reviews social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of theseprograms and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of socialprotection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, the paper highlights important findings on the impacts of theseprograms while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. Finally, the paperdraws important lessons related to the delivery, targeting, and impact of various social protection programs launched inAfrica in response to the pandemic.